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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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338 FXUS65 KFGZ 040456 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 956 PM MST Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue for most of northern Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. The chance for showers and storms will be limited to the White Mountains through Monday, with a slow return back north and west possible toward the middle of next week. && .UPDATE...Showers have cleared this evening near the White Mountains with west-northwest winds beginning to relax. Expect clear skies overnight with cooler temperatures as much drier air from the north and west settles in. High pressure will be large and in charge across much of the West through this holiday weekend with the main threat being the heat. Even though it is July and it gets hot in Arizona during this time of the year, daytime temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above those "normal" hot temperatures. Keep this in mind if you plan on doing outdoor activities during each afternoon through next Monday. Besides for cooling tonight`s low temperature forecast a few degrees given the dry air and clear skies in place, the forecast remains on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...4th of July through the Monday - the strong ridge just off the west coast will dominate our weather as it drifts slowly toward Arizona. With the center of the high remaining to our west, this places northern Arizona in a northerly flow pattern which is quite unfavorable for monsoon moisture. The ensemble average Precipitable Water values for Flagstaff fall to under a quarter inch by Friday, well below the 10th percentile and approaching the lowest values observed for early July. The low chance of showers and thunderstorms will be confined near the White Mountains with dry weather elsewhere. The heat will build, with afternoon highs 5-12 degrees above seasonal averages. The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet begins tomorrow and is valid through Monday. This includes Yavapai County, the Grand Canyon, and Marble/Glen Canyons in the Page area. Please practice heat safety this holiday weekend, especially if you have outdoor plans at the lower elevations. Tuesday and Wednesday - the ridge is forecast to be centered just north of the state. While hot weather is likely to continue, this ridge position is just slightly more favorable for getting some limited moisture back into the area. The latest forecast is for a 20-30% chance of rain along/south of the Mogollon Rim and somewhat higher values toward the White Mountains. North of the rim, the heat may prompt an extension of the Excessive Heat Warning beyond Monday. && .AVIATION...Thursday 04/06Z through Friday 05/06Z...VFR conditions will continue under mostly clear skies. Light winds overnight, becoming NW to N around 10 kts gusting up to 20 kts Thursday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Friday 05/06Z through Sunday 07/06Z...Expect VFR conditions with northerly winds 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Expect dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will climb well above average. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph on Thursday, with a switch to northerly. Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions are expected for most areas through Sunday. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over of the White Mountains and Eastern Mogollon Rim through Sunday and then spreading to the Western Mogollon Rim Monday. Daily northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia/JJ AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff