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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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971 FXUS65 KFGZ 022109 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 209 PM MST Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Drier conditions set in on Wednesday with thunderstorm chances confined to the White Mountains. From Thursday onward, expect dry weather and increasing temperatures. A very hot Fourth of July weekend is on tap and will likely continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist across southern portions of Navajo and Apache counties this afternoon as a drier, more stable airmass moves in from the north and west. This activity should continue through early this evening, tapering by sunset. Slight chances for isolated storms are forecast on Wednesday, but only across the White Mountains. A significant warming and drying period takes shape on Wednesday and will continue through this upcoming holiday weekend. High confidence exists in a strong high pressure ridge building off the West Coast on Wednesday and then migrating towards the east gradually through the weekend. Surface to mid-level flow has already shifted to the west-northwest this afternoon, becoming more northerly and breezier to end the week. This synoptic setup is a monsoon killer as drier, northerly flow will push moisture out of the Southwest altogether. Afternoon humidity will likely plummet by Thursday with widespread single digits on Friday. Humidity looks to remain below 15% each afternoon into next week with relatively poor recoveries overnight. As humidity and moisture decrease, temperatures on the other hand will be increasing during this time as high pressure strengthens. Daytime highs of 5-10 degrees above average (it happens to be the warmest time of the year climatologically speaking) return on Thursday and continue through the weekend. Given the high confidence in the temperature forecast and the impacts this anticipated heat will likely have during the Fourth of July weekend, Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for our lower valley locations across Yavapai County and from the Grand Canyon to Marble Canyon for Thursday and Friday. Heat impacts will likely be felt across all of northern Arizona during this time with a high to extreme UV Index thanks to minimal cloud cover expected each day through Sunday. As we enter into next week, confidence remains on the higher side in this high pressure system sticking around for the time being. Conditions look to remain dry and hot through Tuesday, however, ensemble guidance indicates moisture beginning to sneak back in from the south and east by the middle of next week. We also will have to keep our eye on Hurricane Beryl, currently causing major problems for those in the Caribbean. Even though it is very far out, long range model guidance shows the storm taking a west- northwest track and could impact southern Texas. This potential scenario would result in an influx of moisture from the southeast. Of course this all depends on the overall track of the hurricane and the strength of the high pressure system over the West. Lots of things to think about and watch. Until then, plan on hotter and drier conditions. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 02/18Z through Wednesday 03/18Z...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA south and east of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line until 04Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds possible near TS. VFR conditions otherwise expected with W/SW winds 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/18Z through Friday 05/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions, ISOLD MVFR in SHRA/TSRA near KSOW/KJTC Wednesday afternoon. Winds W around 10 kts on Wednesday, becoming N/NW on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon trough Thursday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, then again just in the White Mountains on Wednesday. Dry on Thursday. Winds west/southwest 5-10 mph, becoming west 10-15 mph on Wednesday. Friday though Sunday...Hot and dry conditions are expected, outside of a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains on Saturday. Warming temperatures with northwest through northeast winds 10-15 mph. Afternoon RH values 5-15%, with overnight recovery 20-40%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff