183
FXUS65 KFGZ 060448
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
948 PM MST Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona into early next week. A slow return of monsoon
moisture is possible toward the middle or end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloud free skies
across northern Arizona this evening. An MCS has developed over
northern Sonora in Mexico, but clockwise flow around the high
centered over northern California will prevent any moisture
associated with the MCS from moving into the area. So, expect a
quiet night under clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will
be a bit cooler tonight as compared to last night at most places.
In general, expect low`s ranging from the mid-40s to mid-60s
across the majority of northern Arizona`s High Country.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /439 PM MST/...Breezy and very dry north-
northeast winds continue early this afternoon. Pressure
gradients tightened overnight resulting in these increased
breezes, especially just downwind of the higher terrain. Monsoon
moisture has been completely scoured out of our forecast area with
surface dewpoints ranging from 10-20F for most locations.
Temperatures are actually running a few degrees lower than 24 hrs
ago along/north of the Mogollon Rim with the northerly flow. South
of the rim is warmer though. The very strong ridge continues to
be centered over northern California today, and will slowly drift
southeast closer to Arizona over the next few days and result in
an extended heat wave for the state. A trough moving down through
the Rockies will tighten gradients again Sunday across the region
with gusty northwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph expected.
The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet continues through
Tuesday for now and may need to be extended farther into next week
with subsequent shifts. As far as monsoon moisture goes, with the
dry northerly flow of the next few days, we removed even the low
rain chances in the White Mtns through Monday. Later in the week,
some of the guidance shifts the center of high pressure due north
or even a bit northeast of our area which could allow for some
moisture to move in from the east. It does seem that each day this
gets pushed farther into the future, which would require the heat
products to be extended. Low PoPs return from the Mogollon Rim
south and east Tuesday through the end of the week, but even this
could be a bit too aggressive.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 06/06Z through Sunday 07/06Z...VFR conditions
with mostly clear skies will continue. Light winds overnight
except near KSEZ which will see NE 10-20 kts overnight. Winds
become W to N at 10-20 kts Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/06Z through Tuesday 09/06Z...VFR conditions
continue. W to NW winds increase Sunday to around 15 kts gusting
up to 25 kts, and then shift to NW to N on Monday around 10-20
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Hot conditions, with
highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A few showers or storms possible
over southern Apache County on Saturday. Northerly winds 5-15 mph
today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering overnight
to 15-30%.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot and dry conditions continue. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Tuesday over the eastern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains and spreading northwest on
Wednesday. Light winds on Monday becoming westerly 10 to 20 MPH on
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering
overnight to 15-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff