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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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912 FXUS65 KFGZ 192013 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 113 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend with typical afternoon winds. && .DISCUSSION...A moderate monsoonal pattern will continue under the influence of high pressure aloft over the region through the next several days. The upper level high pressure circulation is centered over central Arizona today and gradually nudging westward. Convective initiation has begun with isolated to scattered coverage over the higher terrain areas. Storm strength is somewhat lacking so far, likely due to less available instability today with the high parked overhead. As has been the pattern the last several days, expect scattered storms to continue through this evening while gradually drifting into the lower elevations. Brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds are the main concerns today. Very marginal instability should limit the threat of larger hail. We expect a continuation of this general pattern through the upcoming week. The high pressure circulation will shift west of Arizona while strengthening over the Great Basin. This will keep us in a northerly steering flow. Expect daily chances for thunderstorms, with a focus for late afternoon/evening storms south of the Mogollon Rim. A slight uptick in moisture looks likely over the weekend, especially along and south of the rim which will lead to a slight increase in precipitation chances. This pattern typically results in some severe storms and heavy rainfall south of the rim, and Sunday/Monday look like the best days for this with more storm organization and longevity. Yavapai/Gila county will see storm chances continue well into the evening hours throughout this northerly flow regime. No notable changes in the pattern are expected until perhaps beyond day 7 when a flattening of the ridge could bring some drier air into the region, but confidence is low right now. The presence of the warm ridge and above average heights through most of the period will continue to bring warmer than average temperatures. The most susceptible areas are the lower Grand Canyon and valleys of Yavapai county, including Verde Valley, but these areas look to remain below any heat warning thresholds. Regardless, caution should be used in the lower elevations as temperatures continue to run well above normal for late July. && .AVIATION...Friday 19/18Z through Saturday 20/18Z...Isolated TSRA/SHRA will begin developing across the region between 18Z and 21Z. Outflow interactions will help generate additional convection activity while also resulting in gusty erratic winds, especially when nearby aviation sites. Activity will diminish after 01-03Z this evening. OUTLOOK...Saturday 20/18Z through Monday 22/18Z...Daily chances persist for scattered TSRA/SHRA each afternoon/evening. Periods of MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds near TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions with variable daytime winds 5-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...A warm, monsoonal pattern will continue with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Storms may produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. The threat for heavy rain increases Sunday south of the Mogollon Rim. Outside of storm activity, expect west to north winds 5 to 15 mph. Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. An increased threat for heavy rainfall continues Monday south of the Mogollon Rim. Winds outside of storms mainly less than 15 mph and variable in direction. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff