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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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508 FXUS65 KFGZ 150435 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 935 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through next week as we enter into an active monsoon pattern. Temperatures will remain near average during this time with typical afternoon winds. && .UPDATE...Widespread thunderstorms developed along the Mogollon Rim by mid afternoon today and spread westward into an area with deeper moisture and higher instability that included northern Gila County and eastern Yavapai County. The result was scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, some producing very heavy rain and flooding. The last round of storms is now moving westward across south central Yavapai County, mainly west of I-17. A few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out through around 11 PM from this area into southwest Yavapai. Elsewhere, activity is diminishing with various outflow boundaries still causing gusty winds, including a 32 mph gust at Flagstaff Airport at 9 PM. && .PREV DISCUSSION /445 PM MST/...High pressure aloft was centered over Colorado and the Four Corners region during the afternoon, set to remain in place through Monday. Starting Tuesday the high will begin a gradual shift westward and amplify under the influence of a strengthening trough over the eastern United States and a stationary trough just off the west coast. For Today...The morning sounding at Flagstaff indicated a bit more low level moisture and instability. In addition, model soundings further south are indicating a similar trend with increased moisture and instability. As a result, expecting more widespread activity from the Mogollon Rim southward than observed on Saturday. A few pulse severe thunderstorms will be possible over Yavapai County with a mixed layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Elsewhere, isolated activity. We did lower the chances for precipitation for late this evening and after midnight to a generic 10-20% since there is very low confidence in any particular area receiving showers overnight. On Monday...The high stays put. Moisture will continue to increase as flow from over the Gulf of California is open for business. Daytime vertical mixing will help entrain some of the Gulf moisture into the high circulation but also diurnal valley/mountain flow will help push moisture northward. The result will be another round of scattered showers from the Mogollon Rim southward with activity tending toward isolated further north. Would not be surprised to see a couple severe thunderstorms and localized flooding across portions of Yavapai and Gila Counties. From Tuesday onward...The high center wobbles westward across Arizona eventually amplifying over the Great Basin late in the week. As a result, we will see a continued increase in monsoon moisture through the week for the reasons mentioned in the first paragraph. The pattern will also become more favorable for the development of thunderstorm complexes over northwest Mexico mid to late in the week for an additional source of moisture from the south. The result will be a gradually increasing trend in the coverage of showers and storms heading toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION...Monday 15/00Z through Tuesday 16/00Z...VFR conditions outside of storm activity. Scattered TSRA/SHRA moving westward from a KFLG- KPAN-KSOW line at 00Z toward Yavapai County including KPRC through the evening hours, with MVFR conditions and hail in the stronger storms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds 30-40 kts, otherwise W-SW winds 10- 20 kts. Another round of scattered storms develop after 19Z Monday. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/00Z through Thursday 18/00Z...VFR conditions outside of storm activity. Scattered SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower possible, mainly between 19Z-03Z each day. Gusty and erratic outflow winds in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, west winds 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern Arizona, most numerous from the Mogollon Rim and locations south. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow winds at 35-45 mph, expect west to northwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon. Little change in daytime temperatures. Wednesday through Friday...Monsoonal moisture will remain across the region with scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity each day. West to northwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon with little change in high and low temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff