936
FXUS65 KFGZ 200908
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
208 AM MST Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through next week. Temperatures will remain a bit above average
through the weekend, with light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong ridging continues over the western US, with
the center slowly drifting westward through Monday. This places
our region under a northerly flow regime aloft, not the typical
monsoon orientation but enough moisture will remain in place for
scattered thunderstorms each day. Moisture levels are highest
along/south of the Mogollon Rim and this is where the better
coverage of storms will be each day. Sunday afternoon and evening
could be interesting south of the rim as northerly steering flow
increases and higher CAPE values are also forecast. A few strong
to severe storms and localized flooding is looking more likely
Sunday evening in Yavapai/Gila counties. Outside of storms, it
will stay hot through Monday though likely a bit short of warning
criteria. Tuesday through Thursday - much of the guidance now
forecasts the ridge to strengthen again and move back eastward
toward Arizona. Although scattered storms are still forecast each
day (especially along/south of the Mogollon Rim), the intensity of
storms could be suppressed by the warmer mid level air in the
ridge. We will also have to monitor the lower elevation areas for
possible heat products if the ridge ends up as strong as some of
the guidance shows.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 20/06Z through Sunday 21/06Z...Outside of
convective activity, VFR conditions and generally light winds.
Saturday 18Z-03Z Sunday, expect SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA
that may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 21/06Z through Tuesday 23/06Z...Outside of any
convective activity, expect VFR conditions and generally light
winds. From 18Z-03Z each day, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA may
produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with above normal temperatures. Storms may
produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Outside of any storm
activity, expect variable winds 5 to 15 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with above normal temperatures. Storms may
produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Outside of any storm
activity, expect variable winds 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

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