661
FXUS65 KFGZ 172101
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
201 PM MST Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as a moderate monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain above average through
the weekend with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Storms have developed again today over the higher
terrain, with somewhat greater coverage than yesterday. With the
weak steering winds, the slow-moving storms have the potential for
heavy rain and some local flash flooding this afternoon and
evening. The greatest instability (CAPE) will be along and just
south of the Mogollon Rim (again), and some storms will likely
build toward the greater instability in Gila and Yavapai Counties
later this afternoon against the generally southerly steering
flow.

Over the next couple days the strong ridge over the Great Basin
will slowly move westward, bringing the ambient moisture with it.
With this, we`ll see little change in the overall convective
potential across northern AZ as the axis of the ridge settles in
to our west - but the distribution of the precipitation will
evolve as the steering flow slowly changes. While the details can
not be resolved at this time, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should be expected each day through the forecast period, with a
continued threat of heavier precipitation from the Mogollon Rim
to the south with this pattern.

Under the strong ridge, very warm (even hot) temperatures are
forecast to continue into the weekend with maximum temperatures
running 5-10 degrees above normal for mid-July through Saturday.
We are just below our excessive heat criteria, but the accumulated
heat stress will continue to impact those in the valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 17/18Z through Thursday 18/18Z...Another
round of scattered thunderstorms today mainly along and south of a
KGCN - KRQE line, with isolated storms further north. Brief MVFR
conditions in heavy rain and strong outflow winds in and around
storms. Outside of storms, VFR continues with varying wind
directions generally 10-15 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 18/18Z through Saturday 20/18Z...Daily chances
for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic outflow wind possible in and around TS. Otherwise,
VFR with winds generally 10-15 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Isolated to scattered showers
and storms (most numerous over the higher terrain) are expected each
afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail,
and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds generally variable
5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will continue each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds
generally variable 5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above
normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff