502
FXUS65 KFGZ 180504
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1004 PM MST Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as a moderate monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain above average through
the weekend with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.UPDATE...Mostly light showers remain across our CWA, minus a few
isolated thunderstorms near central/southern Yavapai County.
Although activity is decreasing, a few remaining outflow may kick
up a few additional showers/storms. More monsoon weather is in
store through the weekend and into next week. Only minor updates
were made to the forecast package this evening. Check out the
previous discussion for more details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /407 PM MST/...Storms have developed again today over the higher
terrain, with somewhat greater coverage than yesterday. With the
weak steering winds, the slow-moving storms have the potential for
heavy rain and some local flash flooding this afternoon and
evening. The greatest instability (CAPE) will be along and just
south of the Mogollon Rim (again), and some storms will likely
build toward the greater instability in Gila and Yavapai Counties
later this afternoon against the generally southerly steering
flow.

Over the next couple days the strong ridge over the Great Basin
will slowly move westward, bringing the ambient moisture with it.
With this, we`ll see little change in the overall convective
potential across northern AZ as the axis of the ridge settles in
to our west - but the distribution of the precipitation will
evolve as the steering flow slowly changes. While the details can
not be resolved at this time, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should be expected each day through the forecast period, with a
continued threat of heavier precipitation from the Mogollon Rim
to the south with this pattern.

Under the strong ridge, very warm (even hot) temperatures are
forecast to continue into the weekend with maximum temperatures
running 5-10 degrees above normal for mid-July through Saturday.
We are just below our excessive heat criteria, but the accumulated
heat stress will continue to impact those in the valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 18/06Z through Friday 19/06Z...VFR conditions
will prevail through the rest of the overnight/early morning
hours. Brief MVFR condition possible after 18Z from SHRA/TSRA.
Expect scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms from 18Z
through 06Z. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty/erratic outflow
winds will be the primary hazards. Outside of thunderstorm driven
winds, look for W winds 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/06Z through Sunday 21/06Z...Expect daily
SHRA/TSRA chances mostly in the afternoon/evening hours. Gusty and
erratic winds likely from storm development, with W-NW winds
generally less than 15 kts otherwise. VFR conditions will persist
outside of MVFR conditions from showers/storms.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Isolated to scattered showers
and storms (most numerous over the higher terrain) are expected each
afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail,
and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds generally variable
5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered to widespread showers and storms
will continue each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds
generally variable 5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above
normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/BAK
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff