Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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338 FXUS65 KFGZ 190944 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 244 AM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend with typical afternoon winds. && .DISCUSSION...Some light showers continue early this morning, mainly over northern Apache and Navajo counties, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds elsewhere. The center of the high pressure system is parked right over central Arizona, and the clockwise circulation around this center can be seen in current radar loops (showers in NE Arizona moving south, while showers in Coconino County are moving north). Latest model data continues to indicate that the center of the high will slowly move westward over the next few days, and this will bring northerly steering flow to most of our forecast area starting today, but getting a bit stronger later Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable water values are slightly above normal for mid-July south of the Mogollon Rim and this isn`t expected to change much over the next several days. Along and north of the Mogollon Rim, moisture values are closer to normal. 500mb heights will remain high today (596 dam) with another hot day around the region, but just a bit short of any warning criteria for our lower elevations. These heights slowly come down over the weekend and into next week as the high shifts westward, allowing for a gradual lowering of high temperatures - though still a few degrees warmer than normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop each day, first over the higher terrain including the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns by late morning or early afternoon, and then move southwestward with the mean steering flow. This pattern is favorable for some strong to locally severe thunderstorms rolling off the rim into Gila/Yavapai counties by late afternoon and evening. The main threats with these storms include strong gusty winds and localized flooding, though some isolated large hail is also a possibility. This pattern sticks around for much of next week, though right now Sunday afternoon and evening are looking particularly favorable due to higher instability (CAPE) values, and also enhanced northeasterly steering flow of around 20-25 kts. North of the Mogollon Rim, coverage of storms should be somewhat lower, but still in the 30-50% range. Outside of gusty winds with storms, generally west to northwest winds 5-15 mph are expected into next week. && .AVIATION...Friday 19/06Z through Saturday 20/06Z...Expect VFR conditions overnight with SCT-BKN cloud cover above 10,000 feet AGL, becoming clear by 15Z. Anticipate another round of -TSRA/-SHRA from 19Z-03Z with the greatest chances along and south of a KGCN- KFLG-KSOW line. Brief periods of MVFR VIS with mountain obscuration due to lower cloud cover are likely in heavy storms. Outside of erratic/gusty outflow winds of up to 35 kts, expect light winds overnight, becoming northwest 10-20 kts by 20Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 20/06Z through Monday 22/06Z...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief periods of MVFR conditions are anticipated each day from roughly 19Z-03Z. The greatest chances for direct impacts from storms will be along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. Besides for gusty/erratic outflows from storms, expect north-northwest surface winds, 10-20 kts each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with the most numerous storms expected over the higher terrain. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Daytime winds southwest to northwest 5 to 15 mph outside of storms, along with near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Sunday through Tuesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. Variable winds 5 to 15 mph outside of storms, along with near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff