023
FXUS65 KFGZ 032203
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
303 PM MST Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected again today. Drier conditions return for the holiday
weekend, with a weak return of moisture and warmer temperatures next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sufficient monsoon moisture is interacting with a
weak trough just to our west this afternoon to generate another
round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The focus for
activity today has been across Coconino and northern Yavapai
counties, which has aligned well with high resolution guidance
and enhanced instability from the approaching trough. Stronger
storm cells this afternoon/evening will be capable of producing
heavy rain, hail and gusty winds. Scattered storms will continue
through the evening hours before dissipating as drier moves in
with the advancing trough.

The trough axis moves east of Arizona tonight, ushering in drier
air from the west. This will result in a shut-down of thunderstorm
activity Friday and Saturday, with only an isolated thunderstorm
possible in the White Mountains. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal for the 4th of July holiday.

High pressure begins to gradually build northward again this
weekend, potentially centering near the Four Corners by the
middle of next week. The northward movement of the high should
begin to draw moisture back north across the state, but not all of
the available guidance suggests this. There are still plenty of
ensemble members that keep a drier flow over the area through much
of next week. At this point, we have moderate confidence in a
gradual return of moisture and a low to moderate monsoonal pattern
for next week. The building high pressure will also lead to
rising temperatures, and some vulnerable locations could near
extreme heat criteria, especially the valley of Yavapai county and
the lower Grand Canyon.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 03/18Z through Friday 04/18Z...Isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA will quickly become scattered to widespread,
 continuing through 03Z Friday. Heavier showers could bring brief
 drops to MVFR conditions, and erratic gusty outflow winds. Winds
 are SW-W 5-15 kts away from storm activity, then light and VRB
 overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 04/18Z through Sunday 06/18Z...VFR conditions.
Slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA on Saturday afternoon SE of a KPAN-
KSJN line, dry otherwise. SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts on
Friday, becoming W-SW around 10 kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms occasionally producing hail, gusty outflow winds, and
heavy downpours will continue, mostly ending by the early evening.
Much drier conditions return on Friday, then a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains on Saturday.
Minimum RH values look to drop from 20-40% today to 10-20% on Friday
and Saturday. Outside of gusty storm-driven winds, look for south
through west winds 10-20 mph each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Hot with gradually increasing moisture.
Minimum RH is between 10-25% each day. Light southwest winds 10-15
mph. Precipitation chances each afternoon look to be mostly
Flagstaff eastward, with the best chances in the White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff