Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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693 FXUS65 KFGZ 031923 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1223 PM MST Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue for most of northern Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. The chance for showers or storms will be limited to the White Mountains through Monday, with a slow return back north and west possible toward the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon mainly south of a Payson to Heber to St Johns line. This activity is not particularly strong as MUCAPE values are <750 J/kg. Some gusty winds to 35 mph, brief downpours, and small hail could accompany these storms. Elsewhere, the major drying trend continues. Sfc dewpoints have fallen off into the 20s and 30s which is much drier than normal for this time of year. Skies are mostly sunny with temperatures a few degrees above normal. 4th of July through the Monday - the strong ridge just off the west coast will dominate our weather as it drifts slowly toward Arizona. With the center of the high remaining to our west, this places northern Arizona in a northerly flow pattern which is quite unfavorable for monsoon moisture. The ensemble average Precipitable Water values for Flagstaff fall to under a quarter inch by Friday, well below the 10th percentile and approaching the lowest values observed for early July. The low chance of showers and thunderstorms will be confined near the White Mountains with dry weather elsewhere. The heat will build, with afternoon highs 5-12 degrees above seasonal averages. The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet begins tomorrow and is valid through Monday. This includes Yavapai County, the Grand Canyon, and Marble/Glen Canyons in the Page area. Please practice heat safety this holiday weekend, especially if you have outdoor plans at the lower elevations. Tuesday and Wednesday - the ridge is forecast to be centered just north of the state. While hot weather is likely to continue, this ridge position is just slightly more favorable for getting some limited moisture back into the area. The latest forecast is for a 20-30% chance of rain along/south of the Mogollon Rim and somewhat higher values toward the White Mountains. North of the rim, the heat may prompt an extension of the Excessive Heat Warning beyond Monday. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 03/18Z through Thursday 04/18Z...Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible from 19Z-01Z, mainly SE of a KSOW-KSJN line. Daytime sfc winds SW-W10-20kts, otherwise light. OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/18Z through Saturday 06/18Z...Expect VFR conditions and light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Friday...Shower and thunderstorm chances retreat to southern Apache County this afternoon, with dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will climb well above average. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph today become lighter on Thursday, with a switch to northerly. Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions are expected for most areas through Sunday. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over of the White Mountains and Eastern Mogollon Rim through Sunday and then spreading to the Western Mogollon Rim Monday. Daily northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff