Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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937 FXUS65 KFGZ 051800 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1100 AM MST Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of northern Arizona into early next week. The chance for showers and storms will be limited to the White Mountains through Monday, with a slow return of monsoon moisture possible later next week. && .UPDATE...Sent an update for this morning`s winds as they are gusting 20-30 mph from the northeast over much of the area, especially just downstream from higher terrain. Flagstaff, Sedona, and Tusayan have measured 30+ mph gusts. Surface pressure gradients tightened overnight as a surface high settled in from the north. These should relax a bit during the day, with wind speeds gradually decreasing. Otherwise, another hot and dry day is headed our way. && .PREV DISCUSSION /438 AM MST/...A strong high pressure system was centered over the California coast during the early morning hours and is forecast to slowly wobble eastward across the western states over the coming days. For today through Tuesday...The high center will remain to the northwest of Arizona delivering a mainly hot and dry northerly flow from over the Great Basin. High temperatures the will range from 5 to 15 degrees above normal through this period which means exceptionally hot weather. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the lower desert regions of Arizona through Tuesday where temperatures in excess of 110 degrees are likely. But no one will escape the heat with such a strong high in place. The White Mountains of far east-central Arizona will see slight chances for afternoon storms, generally less than 20%, where limited monsoon moisture will linger. Wednesday and beyond...Forecast models are indicating that the monsoon makes a slow return as high pressure shifts eastward. Our confidence remains low and any significant return of moisture appears to hold off until late next week. Therefore, our forecast is for a gradual uptick in thunderstorm activity with a few hot and humid days before monsoon activity really kicks in. && .AVIATION...Friday 05/18Z through Saturday 06/18Z...VFR conditions with NE winds 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts...becoming light and variable after 04Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 06/18Z through Monday 08/18Z...VFR conditions continue. Expect northerly daytime winds around 10 kts on Saturday, becoming light and variable overnight. NW winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts on Sunday into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Hot conditions, with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A few showers or storms possible over southern Apache County on Saturday. Northerly winds 5-15 mph today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering overnight to 15-30%. Sunday through Tuesday...Hot and dry conditions continue. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Monday or Tuesday over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. North to northwest winds on Sunday with gusts 20-25 mph; lighter winds on Monday and Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-45%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...BAK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff