069
FXUS63 KFGF 061743
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower/storm chances continue this weekend. Severe
  thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. Lightning and brief
  heavy rain are the main threats.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Showers have largely spread across all of eastern North Dakota
now with greater lightning density. Further SE convective growth
into west central MN early afternoon along a boundary
stretching into SW MN should promote some stronger convection
in the presence of >20kt bulk shear. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph and
hail to 1" are the main hazards.

UPDATE
Issued at 925 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Showers and embedded thunder have continued to spread across
eastern North Dakota from Devils Lake to Valley City with 45
mph gust at an NDAWN in NE Stutsman co showing these cells
remain capable of gusty winds at the very least. Still
unconvinced about severe potential this afternoon but after a
few funnel reports each of the last few days and similar
conditions today with the upper low won`t rule anything out
quite yet.

UPDATE
Issued at 714 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Since about 10z...a area of t-storms developed from west of
Devils Lake and from New Rockford to between Valley City and
Jamestown. They are moving slowly east-northeast 10-15 kts.
Brief heavy rain with them with the NDAWN near Courtenay ND in
NE Stutsman county receiving 1.21 inches of rain in about an
hour.

Short term model radar forecasts not doing well...so not too
helpful with timing. 500 mb wave in SW ND/far NW SD and will
move east today and expect the continued development of showers
and t-storms area wide. Scattered coverage overall. There was
one mid cloud producing shower west of Osage MN at 12z and via
facebook report of rain at Snellman MN. Tweeked pops a bit for
this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Synopsis...

As expected, we will see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
coverage this weekend as a 500 mb upper wave moves slowly east
along the ND/SD border into northern Minnesota.

0-6 km bulk shear remains sub 20 kts this weekend and while MU
CAPES reach the 1500 j/kg range both this afternoon and Sunday
afternoon, storm development will remain more garden variety
with small cores of heavy rain and slow movement. Small hail is
possible just due to cooler air aloft, but overall storms will
remain below severe limits. With upper wave moving through,
brief funnels will also be possible. Will highlight a chance of
small hail and brief funnels in HWO but not in public messaging
at this time as let dayshift monitor to see if potential can be
narrowed down in location and timing.

As upper wave moves east Monday and Tuesday there will remain
some weak upper level troughing and a low pop for aftn t-storms
early next week.

Thereafter, 500 mb ridge builds north and northeast to help at
least for a while break our pattern of non-stop short wave
troughs thru southern Canada to give a Wed-Fri dry period. It
will be warming up...though not to unusual values....mid-upper
80s and for the first time this summer a more humid airmass with
dew pts likely 65-70 range by Friday.

As we head to the period Friday night and into next weekend,
will have to monitor as model consensus is to break down the
ridge some and put area in more westerly flow and bring some
additional short waves east thru Canada. These waves riding on
top of a more unstable airmass may produce t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Ceilings with afternoon convection have dropped as low as MVFR
with vis dropping to 4SM at a few obs sites. Expect these
conditions to periodically persist through 02Z before activity
diminishes across all sites. Winds remaining light and likely
becoming variable overnight through prevailing southerly if over
5kts. VFR conditions Sunday with more scattered showers.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT