382
FXUS63 KFGF 050006
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
706 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and evening, with
  a chance for funnels in west central MN. Severe thunderstorms
  are unlikely.

- Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend
  and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at
  this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The main mid level low has continued to track southeast and
areas of more defined surface convergence remain outside of our
area. As low level lapse rates have already started to
stabilize the threat for weak tornadoes has diminished. There
have been some areas of thunderstorms training and locally
heavy rain over more urban areas could result in localized flash
flooding. Trends in actively show a general decrease in
organization and movement south and as we decouple
showers/storms should rapidly end (as shown by CAMs).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Synopsis...

H5 troughing prevails across the central CONUS with northwest flow
aloft over the Northern Plains. Look for a continuation of a
relatively active shortwave pattern through the next week as a
western H5 ridge maintains northwest flow for at least the next
several days. Signals suggest a weakening trend of the upper ridge
toward the end of next week, which would serve to support a more
progressive, but still wavy, pattern.

Upper low continues to move to the south this afternoon and evening,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
Thunderstorm activity thus far today has been on the weaker side,
with perhaps small hail with the strongest cells. The environment
will remain supportive of funnels and weak tornadoes through early
this evening due to the prominence of several stationary boundaries
draped across the area. Instability will taper off as we head into
the evening hours, leaving only scattered showers heading into the
overnight hours.

Friday brings a chance for mainly afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms, along with a chance for wildfire smoke during the
evening. Another shortwave approaches the region Friday night into
Saturday, with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during
the afternoon and evening. Although a few strong storms are
possible, widespread severe weather is not expected Friday or
Saturday. Rain chances continue into Saturday night before tapering
off Sunday.

Another shortwave will bring rain chances into the area Monday, with
otherwise relatively quiet weather heading into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track north to
south across eastern ND and northwest MN, moving within the
vicinity of some TAF sites and temporary impacts. This activity
should quickly diminish early this evening, so there may be
another hour or two of aviation impacts before improvement. VFR
ceilings/vis should prevail through the TAF period, though there
is a chance (30%) for MVFR to develop in the 11-14Z period
Friday morning. Wind should generally remain out of the north-
northwest 5-10kt through the TAF period (with higher gusts near
showers/storms early in the period).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR