075
FXUS63 KFGF 050840
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
340 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend
  and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...Synopsis...

We continue to see a northwesterly flow aloft thanks to a deepened
trough over the Hudson Bay and a strong ridge out in the
southwestern United States. Out of this northwesterly flow we see
multiple chances of shortwaves to move through bringing chances for
precipitation. Clusters are converging on the ridge breaking down
out west and shifting eastward late next week and into the following
weekend. This would bring increased warmth and drier conditions.

Currently this morning we have an upper level wave moving east of
the area, with a few sprinkles in lakes country. Winds are light on
the back edge of the precipitation, along with low dew point
depressions. This has brought patchy dense fog at times within
northwestern MN where winds are the lightest. This will continue
through the mid morning hours before temperatures warm.

...Additional chances for precipitation...

Out of the northwesterly flow aloft we have the chance to bring down
smoke from the Yukon area of Canada where fires have been
occuring. Smoke remains aloft, which may bring some hazy
conditions this afternoon and again on Saturday. On top of the
high level smoke we have numerous chances for shortwaves to move
through the region this weekend and again early next week.
There will be a chance for pop up showers this afternoon, with
a few isolated thunderstorm chances. Storms would bring brief
heavy rainfall and some lightning. The best chances for
precipitation comes Saturday as a stronger upper level wave
moves out of southern Canada. It translates across ND and into
MN Saturday afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms are
possible, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
Another wave moves through Monday bringing more chances for
precipitation.

We start to see the signs of the pattern switching mid next week as
clusters (80% of them) are showing the ridge out west breaking down.
Temperatures begin to warm at the end of next week and into the
following weekend. The rest of the clusters have us continuing in
this pattern, with numerous chances for precipitation and average
temperatures. However, the likelihood is that we see warming
temperatures and drier weather end of next week and into the
following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated showers in eastern ND and west central MN should end
early in the TAF period and trends support this remaining
outside of the vicinity of TAF sites. There is a signal for MVFR
stratus and possible fog in west central MN with a period of
impacts shown by a consensus of models at KFAR between 10Z and
14Z Friday. VFR should then return and prevail through the
remaining afternoon (with some daytime CU in the 7000-9000 FT
AGL layer). Winds are expected to remain mainly north to
northwest less than 10kt through the TAF period (becoming light
and variable during the nighttime periods).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...DJR