286
FXUS63 KFGF 052307
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
607 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

Daily shower/storm chances continue this weekend. Severe
thunderstorms are unlikely at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
region with slow forward motion. Impacts will continue to be
primarily lightning as shear is garbage and instability is
minimal. These will come to an end after sunset.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...Synopsis...

Broad upper level troughing in place across the region with a
persistence pattern of diurnal convection currently ongoing.
Little organization as bulk deep layer shear only around
5-10kts. Therefore brief heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds
the main threats with any stronger cells. Current activity
should wane as daylight diminishes this evening.

While daily shower/storm chances to persist through the weekend
with the passage of the shortwave trough aloft. Weak WAA and
trough axis in place should allow for an increase in coverage of
the precipitation chances especially across the south Saturday
and the east into Sunday as the wave slowly rotates through the
Dakotas/Minnesota this weekend. Deep layer shear to remain weak,
therefore overall storm organization and threat for severe
weather is unlikely. Brief heavy rain still a potential for
stronger cells with slower storms motions expected. Overall
little threat for flooding though, unless some stronger cells
move over the same area, especially if an urban area.

Upper level troughiness that has been in place across the region
begins to move east through next week, with western US ridging
building eastward into the central US through the end of the
week. This should allow for a warming across the area through
the week, with a shift toward drier conditions toward the end of
next week. Therefore increased and humidity can be expected by
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The primary aviation impact over the next few hours will be
showers and thunderstorms, but right now the only sites at risk
are BJI and FAR. After 05z, thunderstorms should diminish and
mostly clear skies will be left in its wake overnight. Winds
will remain fairly light and variable through the TAF period
with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...Perroux