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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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894 FXUS63 KFGF 200640 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend and into next week. Severe impacts are unlikely. && .UPDATE... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Skies are majority clear over the area this evening, with radar looking clear. Winds are light, even calm in some areas. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Although there are still a couple weak echoes near Bemidji, doubt anything is actually reaching the ground. The rest of the night should be precipitation free. Sunset showed the high thin layer of smoke, which should help prevent temperatures from cooling as much as they could tonight. This may also help prevent much fog formation. A few sites have reported haze or fog already, but visibilities have only been in the 3 to 5 mile range. UPDATE Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Have had a little shower and thunderstorm activity just to the southeast of Baudette. With no 0-6km bulk shear, these storms have stayed weak. There have also been a few showers and rumbles of thunder down around Fergus Falls. Overall would expect a weakening trend by sunset. A thin veil of upper level smoke will also remain over the FA tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...Synopsis... Shortwave rotating down into the Red River Valley producing not too much in the way of convection so far, but there are some glaciated clouds entering our far northern counties. Still some decent instability and not much shear, so 20 to 30 percent chances for garden variety showers and thunderstorms seems reasonable. Most activity will taper off after sunset as we lose heating and the main shortwave pushes off to the southeast, although some of the CAMs keep some showers around Lake of the Woods throughout the night. There has been some haze in the upper levels on satellite and in the smoke models, so kept the cloud cover no lower than 30 percent. At this point the near surface concentrations look low so will keep out low level mentions for now. Not much changes with the overall pattern for the next few days as north to northwest flow with several weak shortwaves coming through. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances, with weak shear limiting severe potential to less than 5 percent. Temperatures should be fairly seasonal, building to above average values towards the end of the period as ridging arrives for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 There could be some spotty fog around sunrise on Saturday, but confidence is not high enough to mention it at any of the TAF sites. Expect late morning and afternoon cumulus development, with spotty showers and storms again. With the high thin veil of smoke, it may take a little longer to pop cumulus and initiate any storms. Mentioned VCTS at all sites except KFAR for now for mid afternoon through early evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon/AH DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Godon