560
FXUS63 KFGF 200753
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
253 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the period.
  Severe weather unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...Synopsis...

Current water vapor imagery nicely showing an upper level trough
over the intersection of Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota.
Satellite shows some clouds over the FA, but mainly in the southern
Red River Valley and MN Lakes country associated with this low.
Northwest flow is here to stay for the majority of the forecast
period, flattening to more westerly to end the week. Temperatures
will be in the 80s through the work week, possibly warming into the
low 90s as the UL ridge gets compressed before flattening.

...Daily Precipitation Chances...

With the northwest flow, shortwaves are increasingly common in the
mid levels. These shortwaves will bring numerous rounds of
precipitation chances through mid-week, with shower and thunderstorm
chances somewhere in the FA every day between now and then. With
most of these, moisture is lacking to even get a quarter of an inch.
However, Monday into Tuesday morning, WSUP Probabilities are 20 -
30% around the international border for greater than or equal to a
quarter inch of precipitation. With these precipitation chances,
severe chances are very low (less than 5%) with any of these weak
systems that transit the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There could be some spotty fog around sunrise on Saturday, but
confidence is not high enough to mention it at any of the TAF
sites. Expect late morning and afternoon cumulus development,
with spotty showers and storms again. With the high thin veil of
smoke, it may take a little longer to pop cumulus and initiate
any storms. Mentioned VCTS at all sites except KFAR for now for
mid afternoon through early evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...Godon