332
FXUS63 KFGF 201125
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
625 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the period.
  Severe weather unlikely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Mostly quiet weather prevails this morning across much of the
area, with only isolated shower activity in west-central
Minnesota. Temperatures are generally in the low to middle 60s
with light and variable winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...Synopsis...

Current water vapor imagery nicely showing an upper level trough
over the intersection of Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota.
Satellite shows some clouds over the FA, but mainly in the southern
Red River Valley and MN Lakes country associated with this low.
Northwest flow is here to stay for the majority of the forecast
period, flattening to more westerly to end the week. Temperatures
will be in the 80s through the work week, possibly warming into the
low 90s as the UL ridge gets compressed before flattening.

...Daily Precipitation Chances...

With the northwest flow, shortwaves are increasingly common in the
mid levels. These shortwaves will bring numerous rounds of
precipitation chances through mid-week, with shower and thunderstorm
chances somewhere in the FA every day between now and then. With
most of these, moisture is lacking to even get a quarter of an inch.
However, Monday into Tuesday morning, WSUP Probabilities are 20 -
30% around the international border for greater than or equal to a
quarter inch of precipitation. With these precipitation chances,
severe chances are very low (less than 5%) with any of these weak
systems that transit the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Patchy fog has been observed across portions of the region this
morning, with nearly calm winds and otherwise VFR conditions at
all TAF sites. Look for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
with peak heating, with minimal overall impacts to aviation
expected. Winds remain light and variable through the period,
with mid to high level smoke persisting.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...Lynch