Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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654 FXUS63 KFGF 142033 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 333 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms west of the Red River Valley overnight tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...Synopsis... Satellite shows some mid-level and higher level clouds working their way ESE from Saskatchewan this afternoon. Some fields of cumulus are trying to bubble up as the ground warms, resulting in a few pockets around the area. Later this evening, a surface low pressure system will traverse the area, providing the forcing for our expected severe risk. The actual upper low (further back in AB and SK) is expected later on Monday, but instability and other necessary parameters during that period look to be lower, so not thinking severe weather with the UL. Once we get to mid-week, the pattern is expected to shift to ridging to our SW and calmer weather for the work week. ...Severe Risk & Beyond... For the severe risk, guidance has pivoted to show more of an overnight event, with some discrete cells ahead of the actual line of storms. Hazards such as large hail and damaging winds are still expected, but given the predominantly cluster nature, hail size is likely closer to ping pong ball sized (1.5") rather than golf ball sized (1.75"). This is not to say golf balls are not possible in discrete cells that can maintain nuclei in the ice growth zone. MUCAPE remains sufficient for convection, around 1000-2000 J/kg, and shear is more than enough to support strong storms around 50 knots. Damaging winds are a concern with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg in the southern valley, and with dry air aloft, would not be surprised to see some 70 MPH gusts. Some heavy rain is possible as well, with 40 - 60% chance of greater than or equal to 0.5" in 24 hours, mainly HWY- 200 and north on the ND side. After this trough, the rest of the week features quiet weather, and cooler temperatures, warming into the mid 80s by the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Main concerns this TAF period are TSRA, and wind shifts. TSRA will be likely in the 0z - 12z period, and more likely in the southern TAF sites. Winds will go light and variable this evening, turning to the south at first then northerly with a cold front Monday afternoon. Winds will stay below 15 knots throughout the entire period. Clouds will build with the precipitation, but should stay in VFR or MVFR categories. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...AH