585
FXUS63 KFGF 150303
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms west
  of the Red River Valley overnight tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are just west of the
Devils Lake Basin this evening and are tracking southeast. Past
storms that have entered the Devils Lake Basin have diminished
in intensity as the airmass over the Basin has been relatively
stable. So we are watching the current storms to see if they
will be able to push into the Basin and retain their severity.
A secondary area is further toward the west that is pushing
eastward toward the area. RAP/HRRR/NAM guidance continues to
push the instability and higher convective potential area
eastward over the course of the next several hours. This would
increase the threat for severe thunderstorms in the Devils Lake
Basin towards the Sheyenne River Valley. The message still
remains the same, with the main hazards being hail up to golf
ball size and damaging winds up to 75 mph.

UPDATE
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued till midnight for
Cavalier, Towner, Ramsey, and Benson counties. We see clusters
of storms developing in Manitoba and north central North Dakota
this evening tracking south and east. Time of arrival within the
Devils Lake Basin is between 9 and 11pm. They are moving into a
more stable airmass as they track eastward. Uncertainty with
the progression of instability eastward overnight which would
affect the strength of the storms. However, CAMs continue to
indicate the storms developing further into bowing segments or
a linear complex as we continue through the evening hours. We
will continue to monitor the threat for severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...Synopsis...

Satellite shows some mid-level and higher level clouds working their
way ESE from Saskatchewan this afternoon. Some fields of cumulus are
trying to bubble up as the ground warms, resulting in a few pockets
around the area. Later this evening, a surface low pressure system
will traverse the area, providing the forcing for our expected
severe risk. The actual upper low (further back in AB and SK) is
expected later on Monday, but instability and other necessary
parameters during that period look to be lower, so not thinking
severe weather with the UL. Once we get to mid-week, the pattern is
expected to shift to ridging to our SW and calmer weather for the
work week.

...Severe Risk & Beyond...

For the severe risk, guidance has pivoted to show more of an
overnight event, with some discrete cells ahead of the actual line
of storms. Hazards such as large hail and damaging winds are still
expected, but given the predominantly cluster nature, hail size is
likely closer to ping pong ball sized (1.5") rather than golf ball
sized (1.75"). This is not to say golf balls are not possible in
discrete cells that can maintain nuclei in the ice growth zone.
MUCAPE remains sufficient for convection, around 1000-2000 J/kg, and
shear is more than enough to support strong storms around 50 knots.
Damaging winds are a concern with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg in the
southern valley, and with dry air aloft, would not be surprised to
see some 70 MPH gusts. Some heavy rain is possible as well, with 40 -
 60% chance of greater than or equal to 0.5" in 24 hours, mainly HWY-
200 and north on the ND side.

After this trough, the rest of the week features quiet weather, and
cooler temperatures, warming into the mid 80s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Conditions remain VFR across all sites this evening. Storms have
started to develop in north central North Dakota and are
expected to track southeast towards the Red River Valley.
Uncertainty on how far east the storms may get as the further
east they get the more stable the airmass. Storms arrive near
DVL around 04z and FAR, GFK, and TVF around 07-08z. BJI sees
storms and rain chances late around 10z. These storms exit
eastward around the 10-15z time frame. Winds would be erratic
around any of the storms. Ceilings reach MVFR to IFR around
storms and after the storms pass. Conditions improve from west
to east around 15-17z, with FEW to SCT clouds and northwesterly
winds.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...Spender