327
FXUS63 KFGF 160426
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1126 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures this week, with drier conditions mid-week.

- More active pattern returns into the weekend, with a return to
  near normal temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

There have been a few echoes across the FA so far, but not much
has been reaching the ground. There are still upstream echoes
across northwest North Dakota and southern Saskatchewan that
could still glance the western FA overnight, so left the
isolated shower mention as is.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Wind speeds should lighten up by sunset and remain that way
overnight. Will be monitoring to see if any showers may clip our
western FA overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Synopsis...

Northerly upper level flow pattern in place tonight into Tuesday
with a secondary boundary dropping through the region tonight,
and then and continued push of cooler air into the region
Tuesday. High pressure to build in to the region through the
week before return flow sets up Friday sending warmer air back
into the Northern Plains for the weekend. A few showers and
isolated storms will be possible late tonight into Tuesday with
the passage of the secondary front and the weak upper level wave
dropping southward through the northerly flow pattern. Little
instability in place, so any severe weather is unlikely.

...Cooler air will push into the region tonight and remain in
place through the week keeping temperatures mild and slightly
below average. High pressure building across the region
Wednesday into Thursday will allow for dry conditions for mid-
week.

...Southerly flow sets back up across the area into Friday and
the weekend with warm air advection in advance of a shortwave
trough expected to move through the western US upper ridge and
through the Northern Plains Friday. This will bring a return of
storm chances to the area and warming temperatures into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Did not mention showers at any of the TAF sites overnight due to
low confidence in their occurrence. Pretty much the same story
for Tuesday afternoon. There could be a few showers or weak
storms around, but very low confidence that they would hit a TAF
site. Do expect at least SCT cumulus again late Tuesday morning
through the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...Godon