947
FXUS63 KFGF 181727
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. No
severe weather is anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Cumulus continues to move through northwestern Minnesota and has
the potential to develop further into the Red River Valley as we
move into the mid afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Current satellite has a few clouds over Red Lake and Lake of the
Woods this morning, but otherwise conditions are quiet and
sunny. Watching some upper level smoke in southern Canada work
its way southward through the day, which may bring some hazy
conditions. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Clear skies over the area will continue into today. Forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...Synopsis...

Current satellite imagery showing high pressure over the area this
morning, with clouds to the west in Saskatchewan and Montana. This
weak high pressure over eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota will stick around until this evening, when a UL shortwave
on Friday will give us the first of many rain chances. Afterwards,
NW flow aloft will combine with daytime heating and give us rain
chances practically every day. Temperatures will increase into the
mid 80s for highs by beginning of next work week.

...Daily Precipitation Chances...

Starting this evening, with a weak upper level shortwave,
precipitation chances will increase into Friday morning.
Probabilities for receiving >0.25 inches in the area are less than
20%, due to very weak forcing. The environment is enough to get some
showers and thunderstorms though, but they will be reminiscent of
afternoon pop-up storms. With the weak shear and forcing, no severe
weather is anticipated currently. With northwest flow aloft being
ushered in behind this shortwave, chances will be slight every day
for showers and thunderstorms. QPF is not expected to be high with
these showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with brief MVFR ceilings
possible. Cumulus has continued to increase east of the Red
River Valley and has the potential to reach GFK, FAR, and TVF
this afternoon and evening. Ceilings are VFR, but may drop
briefly to MVFR at times. BJI will be under the cloud deck
through sunset. Otherwise, there is a slight chance for shower
and an isolated thunderstorm for eastern North Dakota end of the
TAF period, but confidence is on the low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH/Spender
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...Spender