581
FXUS63 KFGF 191955
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
  weekend and into next week. Severe impacts are unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Synopsis...

Shortwave rotating down into the Red River Valley producing not
too much in the way of convection so far, but there are some
glaciated clouds entering our far northern counties. Still some
decent instability and not much shear, so 20 to 30 percent
chances for garden variety showers and thunderstorms seems
reasonable. Most activity will taper off after sunset as we lose
heating and the main shortwave pushes off to the southeast,
although some of the CAMs keep some showers around Lake of the
Woods throughout the night. There has been some haze in the
upper levels on satellite and in the smoke models, so kept the
cloud cover no lower than 30 percent. At this point the near
surface concentrations look low so will keep out low level
mentions for now.

Not much changes with the overall pattern for the next few days
as north to northwest flow with several weak shortwaves coming
through. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances, with weak
shear limiting severe potential to less than 5 percent.
Temperatures should be fairly seasonal, building to above
average values towards the end of the period as ridging arrives
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Some towering cumulus clouds could bring some scattered showers
or even some thunderstorms, mainly to the MN airports mainly
this afternoon. Not ruling out the ND side, but confidence is
lower so will leave VCSH out of the TAFs for now. Convective
activity in the area will dissipate after sunset leaving light
and variable winds and VFR conditions.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR