Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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965 FXUS63 KFGF 021726 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur much of the next 7 days. For Thu-Fri the heaviest rainfall has shifted south. No severe weather is expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Cumulus continues to fire across the entire FA now, so it looks like the rest of the afternoon will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers, with one lone lightning strike along the Canadian border north of Langdon, have popped up across the area. So the trend of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 955 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Clearing has occurred everywhere now but the strip of counties across our eastern border, running from Baudette to Bemidji to Wadena. Meanwhile, cumulus is already starting to fill in the sunny gaps, especially along and north of highway 2. Breezy west winds are also showing up now to the west of the Red River Valley. These will continue to push eastward through the late morning and afternoon. There hasn`t been much shower development yet, but that is still expected by late morning through the afternoon as well. Overall, the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 708 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Forecast on track. Clearing has made it into the east side of the RRV and moving east. Clear sky in E ND. Expect to see CU to develop late morning/midday and become BKN this aftn north half. HRRR still indicates isold-sct t-storms developing this aftn/eve. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...Synopsis... 500 mb low over Saskatchewan will move into Manitoba today and then into northern Ontario Wednesday. Several short waves around this system will move through areas along the International border the next 24-48 hours giving scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening to northern 1/2 of the fcst area. Next upper wave for the 4th into Friday looks to give heaviest rainfall south of the area, with trends in precipitation amounts continuing to lower in E ND/NW MN. ...Today... Several 500 mb vortices seen rotating around the upper low this early morning. One lifting northeast from north central ND into south central MB, while main wave is lifting north into eastern Manitoba and NW Ontario. Behind the main wave skies are clearing but clouds return behind the wave moving out of north central ND. Additional short waves, one located near Regina SK, will move east along the Intl border this aftn. Enough heating today to boost afternoon temps into the 70s. 500 mb temps cool to around -11.5C from the current -9.5C and CAMs indicate isolated to scattered t-storms forming early thru late afternoon mainly northern 1/2 of the fcst area. With cooler air aloft small hail would be possible from any thunderstorm. MUCAPES also reach the 1000-1200 j/kg range in the north RRV 21z-00z period. ...Wednesday... Similar to today in that thought the main 500 mb low has moved well northeast of the area lingering cold air aloft and sfc heating with highs near 80 to generate isolated to scattered t-storms in the aftn northern 1/2 of the fcst area. MUCAPES reach near 1400 j/kg at 21z Wed. ...4th into the Weekend... Our next more significant upper wave after this larger one departs will move from British Columbia into western Montana and then into South Dakota by 00z Fri. Models agree in having highest rainfall to our south now....with axis of 1-2+ inch rains more east central SD into southern MN Thu-Fri. Much lighter rainfall in our area with amounts 0.75 to 1 inch far south to under a tenth north. Severe weather is not anticipated. Another fast moving short wave will move into North Dakota Saturday giving shower and t-storm chances Sat-Sun. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 So far most of the cumulus has been in the MVFR range, but within another hour or two it should rise back up into the VFR range. West winds remain on the breezy side, and they will continue that way until early evening, when they will drop again. It is pretty tough to say whether any of the developing showers and storms today will hit any of the TAF sites, so only mentioned a VCSH potential for now. Wednesday looks like a repeat of today, with increasing winds again, spotty showers and storms, and increasing wind speeds. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Godon