Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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344 FXUS63 KFGF 031726 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening t-storms today along and north of Highway 2. No severe storms. - Additional chances of shower and thunderstorms will continue into early next week, highest chances Thursday the 4th and on Saturday. No severe storms anticipated. && UPDATE Issued at 1013 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Clear skies continue this morning with temperatures now in the 50s across the area. Upper low to the north is producing some mid to high clouds; however, much of this is remaining north of the International Border at this time. The forecast remains on track this morning. UPDATE Issued at 723 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Skies mainly clear to start the day. 06z model data shows no changes to prev thought of some aftn/eve isold/sct shower/t-storm in the north where 500 mb temps are coolest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...Synopsis... 500 mb low has moved more north than this time Tuesday with circulation in far NW Ontario and northeast Manitoba. Main clouds with this wave along and north of Dauphin/Winnipeg/Kenora. Clear to partly cloudy south of this cloud area over eastern ND into northwest/west central MN. Enough of a west wind to prevent fog formation, but 10-12z period may see patchy fog areas as RH values greater than 90 pct. Sunshine this morning will allow surface heating and highs today a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday in most areas. With continued cool temps at 500 mb with readings of -14 to -15C enough heating to generate MU CAPE values in the 1200-1400 j/kg range, higher in S Manitoba. CAMS indicate isold to scat t-storm development this aftn/early evening in S Manitoba but also in NE ND/NW MN mainly north of Hwy 2. 0-6 km bulk shear values less than 20 kts so no severe weather. Thursday system for the 4th will remain mostly south with heaviest rainfall (more than 1 inch) south of the area. Probs for more than 0.25 inch of rain 12z Thu-12z Fri range from less than 10 percent Roseau to near 55 pct Elbow Lake and along SD border. Chances for rain will be highest in the aftn mainly due to some aftn heating aiding in scattered t-storm development. No severe weather is anticipated due to 0-6 km bulk shear less than 20 kts in our area. Same pattern continues into early next week with a daily chance for a few showers or t-storms mainly north. Saturday aftn will see an upper wave move in and higher rain chances, (60 pops north). Bulk shear will remain low so no severe storms anticipated. Temps and dew pts will remain the same with highs 75-80 and dew pts mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, with the best chances around KTVF and KBJI. Chances are still too low to include in prevailing or TEMPO groups. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all sites. Cloud cover increases heading into Thursday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms very late in the TAF period, mainly for KFAR. Look for generally light winds through the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch/Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch