Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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040 FXUS63 KFGF 040252 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 952 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are possible on July 4th, with a few stronger storms possible along and south of I-94. The pattern supports the development of a few funnels; however, severe thunderstorms are unlikely. - Additional chances of shower and thunderstorms will continue this weekend and into early next week. Severe storms are unlikely. && .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers will continue to diminish overnight tonight with almost no impacts expected overnight. Winds will also diminish with the sunset. UPDATE Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms have collapsed and created brief periods of gusty winds, sometimes as high as 40 mph. These will continue to be a threat over the next 1-2 hours before diminishing after sunset. Limited DCAPE will prevent more organized thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...Synopsis... The H5 pattern continues to support transient shortwave activity through at least the next week. Ridging over the western CONUS, as well as the southeastern CONUS, continues to enhance troughing across the Northern and Central Plains. For today and tonight, scattered showers and isolated storms remain possible, mainly in northwest Minnesota and generally north of Highway 2. A stronger storm or two is possible; however, widespread severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ...Independence Day Forecast... A strengthening shortwave will move out of Alberta and Saskatchewan this afternoon into tonight, then deepen as it traverses the Northern Plains on Thursday. As this occurs, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along the leading edge of a weak theta-e gradient. The best chances to see rain will be along and south of I-94. As the upper low passes over the southern Red River Valley, we could see funnels develop where the strongest convection occurs. This should primarily manifest as shower activity; however, a small group of model soundings allow for a brief period where a low top supercell could develop. This would be a very low chance (less than 5%) scenario that could increase impact potential during the midday and early afternoon hours. ...Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue... The parade of shortwaves continues over the weekend, with another propagating through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday. Guidance has slowed the arrival of rainfall on Saturday, keeping us dry longer during the morning and early afternoon. Cyclonic flow on Sunday will provide more showers and storms. However, shear is nonexistent, so any storms that develop should be of the pop up variety. The story is similar to start on Monday, with chances for rain tapering off from west to east through the day as the system progresses east. Western US ridging will try to build eastward next week. Depending on the strength of the ridge and how far east it can progress will determine when we kick out the active shortwave pattern we have been in. If the ridge stays a bit further west, we would remain in northwesterly flow, keeping the area more active. Further east, and the area will warm up, with quieter and drier weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The primary aviation impact will be over the next 1-2 hours with potential showers and thunderstorms. These will be brief and diminish after 02z. Variable direction winds will be expected with these showers/storms, but should quickly go back to previous wind. Winds will diminish after sunset to light and variable. Showers and thunderstorms may arise after 18z tomorrow, although confidence is low in impacts to TAF sites. VFR ceilings will prevail for the entire TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Perroux