Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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245 FXUS63 KFGF 052003 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... Daily shower/storm chances continue this weekend. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...Synopsis... Broad upper level troughing in place across the region with a persistence pattern of diurnal convection currently ongoing. Little organization as bulk deep layer shear only around 5-10kts. Therefore brief heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds the main threats with any stronger cells. Current activity should wane as daylight diminishes this evening. While daily shower/storm chances to persist through the weekend with the passage of the shortwave trough aloft. Weak WAA and trough axis in place should allow for an increase in coverage of the precipitation chances especially across the south Saturday and the east into Sunday as the wave slowly rotates through the Dakotas/Minnesota this weekend. Deep layer shear to remain weak, therefore overall storm organization and threat for severe weather is unlikely. Brief heavy rain still a potential for stronger cells with slower storms motions expected. Overall little threat for flooding though, unless some stronger cells move over the same area, especially if an urban area. Upper level troughiness that has been in place across the region begins to move east through next week, with western US ridging building eastward into the central US through the end of the week. This should allow for a warming across the area through the week, with a shift toward drier conditions toward the end of next week. Therefore increased and humidity can be expected by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Lighter north to northwest winds this afternoon to shift around to the west to southwest into Saturday. SCT-BKN MVFR to VFR CIGS this afternoon, then skies clear overnight, maybe some mid/high clouds into the area by early Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible near all TAF sites, but coverage too sparse to nail down potential/timing at any site so no mention in the TAFs currently. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJB AVIATION...MJB