Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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795 FXUS63 KFGF 060822 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily shower/storm chances continue this weekend. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. Lightning and brief heavy rain are the main threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...Synopsis... As expected, we will see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend as a 500 mb upper wave moves slowly east along the ND/SD border into northern Minnesota. 0-6 km bulk shear remains sub 20 kts this weekend and while MU CAPES reach the 1500 j/kg range both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, storm development will remain more garden variety with small cores of heavy rain and slow movement. Small hail is possible just due to cooler air aloft, but overall storms will remain below severe limits. With upper wave moving through, brief funnels will also be possible. Will highlight a chance of small hail and brief funnels in HWO but not in public messaging at this time as let dayshift monitor to see if potential can be narrowed down in location and timing. As upper wave moves east Monday and Tuesday there will remain some weak upper level troughing and a low pop for aftn t-storms early next week. Thereafter, 500 mb ridge builds north and northeast to help at least for a while break our pattern of non-stop short wave troughs thru southern Canada to give a Wed-Fri dry period. It will be warming up...though not to unusual values....mid-upper 80s and for the first time this summer a more humid airmass with dew pts likely 65-70 range by Friday. As we head to the period Friday night and into next weekend, will have to monitor as model consensus is to break down the ridge some and put area in more westerly flow and bring some additional short waves east thru Canada. These waves riding on top of a more unstable airmass may produce t-storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR ceilings and minimal impacts will last through the first half of the TAF period. By 18z, expect cumulus to once again develop (still VFR) with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Due to the normal minimal certainty with these types of environments, they have not been added to the TAF. Expect low predictability and short amendment horizons (on the order of hours) for thunderstorms. Winds will also remain light except around thunderstorms, where gusty winds to 20 knots with erratic directions may occur. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Perroux