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FXUS62 KFFC 070843
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

  - Diurnally driven convection will impact much of north and
    central GA Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is not expected.
    A few strong storms could occur.

  - Heat advisory has not been issued for today, but it will still
    be hot and humid. Heat indices will rise to the low 100s in many
    locations before afternoon storms provide some relief.

Forecast:

Rainfall and thunderstorms have come to an end this morning in most
locations. Main problems will be haze and developing fog in some
locations. This should be patchy through sunrise, but we are already
seeing some impacts in and around the metro and some surrounding
locations. If trends continue, SPS for patchy dense fog may be
issued.

CWA is stuck in the middle between a cut off low to the east and
Tropical Storm Beryl to the west. Flow at the surface will be from
the south to southeast, allowing tropical moisture to continue to
filter into Georgia between these two features as the surface
boundary that moved in yesterday continues to slowly retreat back to
the north. PWATs remain well in excess of 2", surface dewpoints are
well into the 70s in all but far N GA, and day time heating
continues to bring temperatures well into the 90s. Put all that
together, and you`ve got a set of miserable Georgia summer days.
Diurnal convection will continue both today and tomorrow. The good
news is this will likely limit afternoon heating to an extent - heat
indices are expected to remain below advisory thresholds thanks in
part to afternoon storms and cloud cover/convective debris. Still,
they will rise into the low 100s in many locations. Given we`ve seen
numerous days in a row of unusual heat (even for July), please
continue to use caution if spending time outdoors.

Storms look to be pretty typical for summer, and severe weather is
not expected, though will never rule out a strong to severe wind
gust that could bring down a few trees in Georgia this time of
year. Afternoon CAPE values are forecast to be 1500-2500 J/kg, and
CAPE profiles are tall but skinny thanks to poor mid and upper
level lapse rates given our moist environment. Shear remains poor
as upper level jet remains well to the north. Bigger concern from
storms will be rainfall. Lack of shear means little motion to
storms that do form, and tropical moisture in place will make for
very efficient rainfall producers. Storms yesterday regularly
showed 1-2+" an hour rainfall rates, which can lead to localized
flooding or even flash flooding in some locations.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The forecast area will initially remain entrenched in a humid and
summerlike airmass to start the extended forecast period as we
remain on the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Meanwhile, model agreement is increasing regarding the eventual
track of the remnants of Beryl, which by Tuesday afternoon are
expected to be lifting from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley to our northwest. Based on this forecast, no direct Beryl
impacts are anticipated locally, and diurnally-enhanced scattered
convection can be anticipated again on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, things look to be trending drier as compared to
previous forecast iterations. With the track of Beryl`s remnants
more likely to pass well to our north into the Ohio Valley and
toward the Great Lakes region, enhanced moisture associated with the
lingering circulation would bypass the area, and drier air would
instead wrap south of the system. As such, PWATs would be more
likely to drop into the 1 to 1.5" range, at least in the northwest
half of the area, from Wednesday to Friday as compared to early week
2+" values. PoPs have thus been adjusted lower during the latter
half of the work week, mainly into the chance range, with the
higher PoPs shunted into the southeastern half of the area.

Temperatures will remain hot with highs ranging from the low to mid
90s through the week. However, if the aforementioned drier airmass
trend is realized, heat index values would begin to trend downward a
bit by midweek with 100+ degree values diminished and focused
farther southeast.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Variable height cigs are in and around TAF sites after another
afternoon of convective storms. Expectation is that patchy low
IFR/LIFR cigs will develop during morning hours and impact most
TAf sites from 09/10Z-13/14Z. Some patchy MVFR vsby issues may be
possible as well. Low cigs should clear shortly after sunrise. PM
TSRA will be possible. Winds will be generally light and from the
east to SE, 3-7 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium-high morning cigs/vsby, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  73  91  73 /  70  50  70  30
Atlanta         91  75  93  75 /  60  40  70  30
Blairsville     87  69  87  69 /  60  40  80  30
Cartersville    94  73  94  73 /  50  30  70  20
Columbus        95  76  94  75 /  70  40  70  20
Gainesville     90  74  91  74 /  70  40  70  20
Macon           92  75  92  75 /  70  40  70  20
Rome            95  74  95  74 /  40  30  60  20
Peachtree City  92  73  93  73 /  60  40  70  30
Vidalia         92  75  92  75 /  70  40  70  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Lusk