470
FXUS62 KFFC 201040
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A 500 mb shortwave is progressing eastward as a stationary boundary
remains draped over north Georgia. At the time of this writing, an
MCV-like feature over eastern central Alabama is producing showers
with a few embedded lightning strikes. As this shifts eastward,
areas across the metro are expected to incur yet another round of
rain through the early morning hours. With low cloud ceilings and
areas of patchy fog developing across much of the area this morning,
temperatures will be slow to warm through the day, limiting our max
daily temperatures in the 80s for most areas. Despite this, models
depict a northward progression of an unstable airmass through the
day that will prime the area for the next round of activity this
afternoon and evening. SBCAPE between 1000-2000+ J/kg across much of
the area today will be enough to support a few thunderstorms through
the afternoon, but in the absence of any appreciable shear and
meager 700-500mb lapse rates, the risk for severe weather remains
low. On the other hand, PWATs running between 1.8-2.2" will make for
localized flash flooding instances a concern in stronger storms,
particularly over areas that have experienced repeated rounds of
rainfall.

Tonight, activity is generally expected to diminish after sunset
with a few showers and thunderstorms remaining possible through the
early morning hours. As another shortwave dives down from the
midwest Sunday and the surface boundary meandering over northern
Georgia Sunday, a similar active weather day with multiple rounds of
numerous showers and thunderstorms is expected. With the airmass
more or less unchanged, thunderstorms are expected to remain
subsevere with a localized flash flooding in the strongest storms.

KAB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Key Messages:

 - Storm chances will continue through the workweek, with daily
   rain chances peaking (50-80%) during the afternoon and evening
   hours each day.

 - Slightly below average high temperatures (by 2-5 degrees) are
   favored in northern and central Georgia through next Thursday.

Ample Rain Chances for the Workweek:

The overall theme of the forecast for the upcoming workweek remains
relatively unchanged over the last 24 hours. Through Thursday the
broad synoptic pattern should consist of an upper level trough over
the Midwest and upper level ridge in the Atlantic. The prevailing
southwesterly flow between these two features will continue to
funnel subtropical moisture into Georgia from the Gulf of Mexico.
Upper level ridging may creep westward on Friday, but moisture
should remain elevated in the region. Precipitable water values at
or above the 90th percentile (1.8-2.1 inches) are expected through
Friday (per GEFS & EPS means). The elevated moisture levels in the
region will favor continued shower and thunderstorms activity.
Projections from the GEFS and EPS suggest positive 5 day rainfall
anomalies of 0.5 to 2 inches between Monday and Friday, with the
highest values occurring over northern Georgia. Storm chances should
primarily be diurnally driven, though some convection could linger
through the overnight period each day. Warm air in the mid levels
should limit lapse rates (700-500 mb 5.5 C/km or less) all week, and
this should keep MUCAPE values modest (500-1500 j/kg). Toss in a
lack of appreciable shear, and severe weather appears unlikely this
week.

Ensemble guidance continues to lean towards below average high
temperatures this week, due largely to the potential for enhanced
cloud cover and rainfall each afternoon. A glance at the NBM high
temperature guidance for Atlanta suggests at least a 75% chance of
below average high temperatures each day between Monday and Friday.
Thus we have moderate confidence in high temperatures being 2 to 5
degree below seasonal averages this week. Look for this to translate
into highs in the 80s over northern Georgia, and upper 80s/lower 90s
in central Georgia.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Line of SHRA continues to impact northern terminals. Cigs/vsbys
will deteriorate to MVFR with periods of IFR. Most locations
should experience IFR cigs by 10-13Z with SHRA. Improvement back
to MVFR with a lull in SHRA is expected between 15-16Z before
afternoon TSRA kick off between 16-18Z. SSW winds will generally
be light and VRB at times but there may be periods of light SSE
through 16Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

KAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  70  88  70 /  60  50  90  60
Atlanta         84  71  85  70 /  60  50  70  60
Blairsville     79  65  81  65 /  70  40  80  60
Cartersville    85  70  87  68 /  60  40  70  60
Columbus        88  72  90  72 /  60  40  70  50
Gainesville     83  70  85  70 /  80  50  90  60
Macon           87  71  90  70 /  60  40  60  50
Rome            84  70  86  69 /  60  40  70  60
Peachtree City  85  70  86  69 /  60  40  70  60
Vidalia         90  73  91  73 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...KAB