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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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617 FXUS62 KFFC 150535 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 135 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Much of Eastern CONUS is positioned in a weakness in the height field between an upper ridge over CO/NM and another elongated ridge extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the west Atlantic. Little change is expected in this pattern through the remainder of the period. Atmospheric moisture will steadily increase this afternoon and into tomorrow. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop and are expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon. Rain chances will mainly range from 15-25%. Aside from lower temperatures in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs today will rise into the upper 90s to near 100. With dewpoints in the 60s due to the mixing of drier air aloft, heat index values will range from about 99-103 this afternoon. While these heat indices will remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, it will still feel quite unpleasant and extra precautions should be taken when outside. Moisture return will continue tomorrow. As such, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be greater tomorrow afternoon, ranging from 40-50% at the most. Although cloud coverage will also be greater tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will still be quite hot, ranging from the mid to upper 90s in the peak heating hours. Heat indices will once again reach into the 100s tomorrow afternoon, and may reach or exceed 105 in a few locations in east-central Georgia. King && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Highlights -Hot conditions to start off but slight downward trend mid to late week. -Increasing rain and thunder chances by mid-week and largely continuing into the weekend. Overall, no significant changes to the long term forecast with this update. The main story will be the return of some much needed rain and slightly cooler temperatures. A midlevel trough is forecast to swing across the Upper Midwest towards the Ohio Valley Region pushing a cold front towards the forecast area as we approach the mid- week time frame. Both the trough, remaining present over the Lower MS Valley, and approaching front will act as a catalyst for increasing rain and thunder chances through much of the period. In addition to rainfall, temperatures will be on a slight downward trend mid to late week. Forecast high temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 90s trending towards the mid to upper 80s by late week into the weekend. While temperatures look to be `less oppressive,` humid conditions may stick as moisture returns to the region -- dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected through the period. 07 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions exist and will prevail through the early morning, with just some lingering mid clouds around from recent decaying convection. Very little change in the overall pattern today (Monday) as daytime heating should pop a nice cu-field by 14-16z followed by scattered convection getting going across the area between 20-24z. This is highlighted in each TAF and will likely be fine-tuned over the next 6-12 hours. Locally heavy rain and brief gusty winds will be main threats. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on timing and coverage of convection. High all other elements. DJN.83 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 96 74 95 / 30 50 30 60 Atlanta 75 95 75 94 / 40 60 30 70 Blairsville 68 88 68 88 / 40 70 30 80 Cartersville 72 95 73 94 / 40 60 30 80 Columbus 76 96 76 96 / 40 70 20 70 Gainesville 74 94 74 94 / 30 60 30 70 Macon 74 96 75 96 / 30 60 20 60 Rome 73 95 73 94 / 40 60 30 80 Peachtree City 73 95 73 94 / 40 60 30 70 Vidalia 77 97 77 96 / 40 60 20 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...DJN.83