042
FXUS62 KFFC 150732
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Fairly stagnant upr lvl pattern across the SE region with a well-
defined ridge across the Four Corners. A weaker upr ridge sits
across the Gulf of Mexico/south FL/Bahamas areas with a weakness
between these two features over the ArkLaMiss and Tennessee areas.

Deepening moisture (PWAT values increase >2.0 inches later today)
will help trigger/support scattered convection across the area as
upr level energy traverses the area within weak southwest low-to-mid
lvl flow. Locally heavy rain will the primary concern given high
PWAT values. Another very warm/humid day will exist with much of
north and central GA seeing peak heat indices between 98F and 105F
this afternoon. A few areas (east-central and southeast counties)
could be even warmer but an expected increase storm coverage should
minimize widespread 105+F heat indices, thus no Heat-related
headlines needed at this time.

Little change in the forecast for Tuesday except for higher
dewpoints, more cloud-cover and slightly broader coverage of storms.
Despite higher dewpoints, temperatures are expected to be several
degrees lower (compared to today) due to the cloud-cover and storm
coverage.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

At a glance:

-Showers and thunderstorms will return late Tuesday and into
Wednesday and continue through the week.

-High temps are expected to fall to within climatological normal
over the long term.

The end of what has been a rough heat wave is finally in sight. A
cold front is expected to arrive by Tuesday/Wednesday and stall
across the southeast for the remainder of the long term.
Temperatures will need a few days to cool off, but by Thursday the
front will have worked it`s way far enough south that we should see
temps fall back into the low 90s and upper 80s. We may even touch
the upper 70s if you`re luck enough to live in the mountains.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
1 to 2 inch range and would not be surprised to see some isolated
higher totals especially across central GA. Widespread severe
weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could be strong
with gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions exist and will prevail through the early morning,
with just some lingering mid clouds around from recent decaying
convection. Very little change in the overall pattern today
(Monday) as daytime heating should pop a nice cu-field by 14-16z
followed by scattered convection getting going across the area
between 20-24z. This is highlighted in each TAF and will likely
be fine-tuned over the next 6-12 hours. Locally heavy rain and
brief gusty winds will be main threats.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on timing and coverage of convection.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          98  73  95  74 /  50  30  50  30
Atlanta         96  74  93  75 /  50  40  60  30
Blairsville     90  68  88  68 /  60  30  70  30
Cartersville    97  72  95  73 /  60  30  60  30
Columbus        98  75  96  76 /  70  40  70  20
Gainesville     95  74  93  74 /  40  30  50  30
Macon           99  73  96  75 /  50  40  60  20
Rome            96  73  95  73 /  50  30  60  30
Peachtree City  97  72  94  73 /  60  40  60  30
Vidalia         98  75  96  77 /  40  30  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...DJN.83