523
FXUS62 KFFC 151750
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Fairly stagnant upr lvl pattern across the SE region with a well-
defined ridge across the Four Corners. A weaker upr ridge sits
across the Gulf of Mexico/south FL/Bahamas areas with a weakness
between these two features over the ArkLaMiss and Tennessee areas.

Deepening moisture (PWAT values increase >2.0 inches later today)
will help trigger/support scattered convection across the area as
upr level energy traverses the area within weak southwest low-to-mid
lvl flow. Locally heavy rain will the primary concern given high
PWAT values. Another very warm/humid day will exist with much of
north and central GA seeing peak heat indices between 98F and 105F
this afternoon. A few areas (east-central and southeast counties)
could be even warmer but an expected increase storm coverage should
minimize widespread 105+F heat indices, thus no Heat-related
headlines needed at this time.

Little change in the forecast for Tuesday except for higher
dewpoints, more cloud-cover and slightly broader coverage of storms.
Despite higher dewpoints, temperatures are expected to be several
degrees lower (compared to today) due to the cloud-cover and storm
coverage.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

At a glance:

-Showers and thunderstorms will return late Tuesday and into
Wednesday and continue through the week.

-High temps are expected to fall to within climatological normal
over the long term.

The end of what has been a rough heat wave is finally in sight. A
cold front is expected to arrive by Tuesday/Wednesday and stall
across the southeast for the remainder of the long term.
Temperatures will need a few days to cool off, but by Thursday the
front will have worked it`s way far enough south that we should see
temps fall back into the low 90s and upper 80s. We may even touch
the upper 70s if you`re luck enough to live in the mountains.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
1 to 2 inch range and would not be surprised to see some isolated
higher totals especially across central GA. Widespread severe
weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could be strong
with gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions continue through the majority of the period. SCT
tsra has already begun to fire across Central GA this aftn.
Activity is expected to continue through the aftn and come to an
end around 02z. Winds will remain W/SW though with any storms
winds may become gusty and/or VRB. Low cigs will be possible
overnight/early Tuesday esp for areas that receive decent
rainfall. For now I have maintained SCT MVFR. Similar Similar
conditions on Tuesday with better coverage of tsra after 18z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on lower cigs overnight/early Tuesday
High confidence on all remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  95  74  94 /  30  50  20  70
Atlanta         73  93  75  92 /  30  60  30  80
Blairsville     67  88  68  87 /  20  50  30  90
Cartersville    71  95  73  94 /  30  60  20  80
Columbus        74  96  76  95 /  30  60  20  80
Gainesville     73  93  74  92 /  20  60  20  80
Macon           72  96  75  95 /  30  60  20  70
Rome            72  95  73  94 /  30  60  20  80
Peachtree City  71  94  73  92 /  30  60  20  80
Vidalia         74  96  77  95 /  20  50  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...07