312
FXUS62 KFFC 160524
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
124 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Temperatures were slower to warm this morning due to persistent
cloud cover but are now on the rise with current readings in the low
to mid 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this
afternoon and look to taper around sunset with the loss of heating.
Activity is expected mainly across Central Georgia as morning clouds
and some light showers seemed to have worked over the environment
across portions of North Georgia. Any storms that develop will have
the potential to be efficient rain producers -- PWs currently
sitting around 1.5-1.8 inches with forecast values through the week
at or above 2.0 inches. Some lower clouds will be possible
overnight/early Tuesday especially for areas that received rain.
Similar weather conditions are expected on Tuesday, though coverage
of convection will trend upward as moisture increases. Additionally,
increasing clouds and convection will keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler on Tuesday. No heat headlines are expected at this
time.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

By Wednesday morning, a potent shortwave embedded within large
trough over the Great Lakes and NE CONUS will be progressing to the
east. This system will drive a front towards the southeast that will
quickly lose steam as forcing for it moves out into the northern
Atlantic, causing it to stall over the southeast. With copious
moisture out ahead of the front, this stalled boundary will act as a
focus for repeated rounds of afternoon convection through the
weekend. One piece of uncertainty in the long term is exactly how
far south this front will progress, and where exactly it will stall,
all of which will have an effect on rain chances and where the
heaviest rain could fall. As such, some uncertainty is baked into
the precip chances (PoPs), especially in northern GA. Central
Georgia...it`s probably gonna be a wet one into the weekend no
matter what. Going into early next week, some models show a tropical
wave moving across Florida and into Georgia. This doesn`t look like
it will be anything more than an open wave riding around the Bermuda
high, but would certainly bring an influx of tropical moisture into
the area as noted by 2+" PWATs in some deterministic model runs. So,
even more rainfall chances into early next week as that boundary
begins to wash out. Current rainfall amounts are in the 2-4" through
all 7 days, though exact totals will be highly dependent on where
storms form, and higher totals will certainly be possible in
locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

Thunderstorms during the afternoons are not expected to create
widespread severe reports. As is usually the case in the summer,
shear is lacking with the jet parked well to the north of us and
effective bulk shear 25 kts or less. Still, forecast MUCAPE values
of 2000+ J/kg will allow for some decent updrafts that could fall
down with some force. Additionally, the front pushing in may allow
for some light organization of storms that would aid in congealing
outflows. Can`t rule out some strong to severe wind gusts, though
once again this is not expected to be widespread on any given day at
this time.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the night and
into the morning as mid to high-level "debris" clouds from earlier
convection slides across the area. Convective initiation should be
similar to Monday (between 17-19z) with all TAF sites warranting
at least a PROB30 during the afternoon hours. Saw some higher wind
gusts with storms yesterday, and will continue that potential
threat for today. Conditions overall improve after 23-00z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high on storm potential and timing.
Low on any stratus developing through 12z.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  94  72  93 /  20  70  40  80
Atlanta         74  93  73  90 /  30  80  50  80
Blairsville     68  87  67  84 /  20  90  60  90
Cartersville    72  94  71  91 /  20  80  50  90
Columbus        75  95  74  93 /  20  70  40  80
Gainesville     74  93  73  90 /  20  80  50  80
Macon           74  95  73  94 /  20  70  40  70
Rome            73  95  71  90 /  20  80  60  90
Peachtree City  73  94  72  91 /  20  80  50  80
Vidalia         75  94  76  95 /  20  70  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...DJN.83