462
FXUS62 KFFC 170544
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
144 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Hires models have been slow to pick up on the convection today but
overall starting to see the convection firing across the area with a
broken line of thunderstorms continuing to make their way southeast
into the ATL metro. These should continue to move southeastward
through the area. Sfc based CAPE values are between 2000 and 3000
J/kg but the shear is basically non existent so storms are pretty
much going up without much movement this afternoon aside from the
line moving southeast into ATL.

For tomorrow we are expecting a similar setup except with the trough
being closer by there will a bit more forcing. Models haven`t been
great at picking up convection the past two days but they are
indicating a bit more of an organized line towards the late
afternoon. The threats with this would of course be strong to
damaging winds and frequent lightning.

Temps will be in the mid 90s tomorrow but with the convection and
the cloud cover expected tomorrow, the apparent Ts should stay low
enough to not need a heat advisory tomorrow.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Long term still looks to be a bit of a washout. Models are still
focusing in on Thursday as being particularly wet thanks to the cold
front that is expected to push into the area and stall. This front
will act as a focus for convection during the afternoon with the
potential for some training convection along it. 1-2" of rain will
be possible, with some isolated higher amounts in any locations that
see multiple rounds. Marginal risk for flash flooding is in place
per WPC as a result. Going into the weekend, the stalled front
should slowly lift back north allowing Gulf/Atlantic moisture to
continue to filter back into the area. Daily diurnal convection will
continue. Into the beginning of next week, an open tropical wave
riding the south side of the Bermuda high will move into Florida and
the Gulf, and could provide even more moisture for rainfall. No
development of this feature into anything more is expected at this
time.

Severe parameters remain relatively tame over the coming days thanks
to a lack of shear, with effective bulk shear forecasts being
generally under 20 kts as the jet stream remains well to the north.
MLCAPE values will rise to 2000+ J/kg, so even with the lack of
shear, a strong storm that falls hard will be capable of a strong to
severe wind gust, but these should remain very isolated. Some
organization will be possible with aid from the front that pushes
into the region on Thursday, so this will need to be monitored.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through
around 17z or so when diurnal convection should
kickstart across the area. Higher coverage expected
during the afternoon, especially north GA than on
Tuesday. Have continued the prob30 groups areawide
around 17z through 23z although there could be some
lingering SHRA or TSRA beyond 23z, but will adjust accordingly
tomorrow as things develop. Winds will remain west
through the cycle and cigs should remain VFR outside
thunderstorms.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of storms
High confidence all other elements.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  93  70  86 /  50  80  50  80
Atlanta         72  89  71  86 /  60  90  60  80
Blairsville     66  83  64  81 /  70  80  40  80
Cartersville    69  90  67  87 /  60  80  40  70
Columbus        74  93  72  89 /  50  90  70  90
Gainesville     72  90  70  85 /  50  80  40  80
Macon           73  94  71  89 /  40  80  60  90
Rome            71  89  68  88 /  60  80  30  60
Peachtree City  70  90  69  87 /  60  90  60  80
Vidalia         76  96  74  93 /  30  80  60  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...30