478
FXUS62 KFFC 170752
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A more normal summertime pattern with much needed flash drought
relief on the way. The region lies in a break between the strong
mid level ridge over the western US and the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge
out over the Atlantic with southerly flow around the Atlantic
ridge. As a result, deep moisture is fairly well established
across the area with PWAT values above 1.5" and ranging as high as
2" in model forecasts through Thursday. With little capping or
inhibition, expect gradual increases in diurnal coverage Wednesday
and Thursday leading into the extended. Not seeing much in the
parameter space to indicate a widespread severe threat each day,
but certainly can`t rule out an isolated severe tstorm. CAPE
values ranging 1000 up to 3000 j/kg expected however, mid level
lapse rates remain fairly low aoa 5 deg C/km thus heavy rainfall
or higher rainfall rates looks to be the primary risk given the
higher pwat values, followed by lightning and strong to damaging
wind gusts. Wednesday max T`s appears to be the last above normal
day before more normal to even below normal temps take hold as
more storms and cloud cover become prominent in the extended.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

At a glance:

-No big changes to the previous forecast

-Showers and thunderstorms will be likely every afternoon.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
2 inch range with locally higher amounts expected for isolated
areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few
afternoon storms could warrant a SVR warning with winds being the
primary concern. Given MU CAPE values in the vicinity of 2000+ J/KG
most of our afternoon convection will likely have strong winds,
periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

As far as temps go, we`ll be on the cool side of the climatological
norms with highs around 3 degrees below normal. Highs beginning
Friday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s from north to south; areas
of higher elevations may struggle to get out of the 70s. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. It`s worth noting that
high temps may be significantly different from the forecast in areas
where rain keeps temps from peaking during the afternoon.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through
around 17z or so when diurnal convection should
kickstart across the area. Higher coverage expected
during the afternoon, especially north GA than on
Tuesday. Have continued the prob30 groups areawide
around 17z through 23z although there could be some
lingering SHRA or TSRA beyond 23z, but will adjust accordingly
tomorrow as things develop. Winds will remain west
through the cycle and cigs should remain VFR outside
thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of storms
High confidence all other elements.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  71  93  70 /  50  50  80  50
Atlanta         93  72  89  71 /  60  60  90  60
Blairsville     88  66  83  64 /  80  70  80  40
Cartersville    94  69  90  67 /  70  60  80  40
Columbus        97  74  93  72 /  50  50  90  70
Gainesville     93  72  90  70 /  60  50  80  40
Macon           97  73  94  71 /  50  40  80  60
Rome            94  71  89  68 /  80  60  80  30
Peachtree City  94  70  90  69 /  50  60  90  60
Vidalia         96  76  96  74 /  50  30  80  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...30