369
FXUS62 KFFC 180601
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
201 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Models have performed better today with scattered convection firing.
The atmosphere has recovered quickly from the showers this morning
with temps in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. That along with
CAPE values ~2500-3000 J/kg and pockets of 3500 J/kg mean these
storms have plenty of energy to work with this afternoon. Shear is
still basically non existent so although we could see a couple of
severe storms, not expecting anything widespread. Lapse rates are
decent but not overly impressive so wouldn`t be surprised if we saw a
few reports of pea size hail with any storms that become strong
along with the other threats of gusty winds (mainly sub severe) and
frequent lightning. PWATs from the morning sounding show ~1.8" which
means that these storms will also be efficient rainfall producers.
Despite this, we are only looking at isolated pockets of up to 0.25"
mainly associated with the convection at this time.

Tomorrow we should start to see some effects from the front as it
drapes just north of the area. This should result in increased
convection in north GA and the normal diurnal convection should
continue into the afternoon for the remainder of GA. Temps will
again be in the low to mid 90s for most of the area with limited
relief if you happen to be affected by a shower.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The trend towards wetter weather doesn`t look to abate with this
forecast update. Stalled front will likely be to the north of the
area Friday with remnant outflow from copious storms Thursday
somewhere in the state. This will provide a focus for additional
convection with best chances in central GA. Some uncertainty on
coverage in northern GA, but with moisture likely present if front
remains north, hard to rule out airmass storms. Into the weekend,
little change in the upper air pattern means that southerly flow
from the Gulf will continue to move into the area, bringing with
it the lovely moist airmass. Airmass thunderstorms expected to
continue. Open tropical wave moves in Monday/Tuesday and looks to
bring even more moist air to the party, so the airmass storms
should continue. QPF values continue to be 2-4" over the area
through the period, with much higher amounts possible where storms
train or affect the same areas day by day. WPC has held a
Marginal Risk of flash flooding for Friday, and expect that to
likely be the case for the next few days past if the forecast
continues to hold.

Severe concerns remain low overall, but not zero. Will need to see
if the front/remnant outflow can help briefly organize anything on
Friday, but otherwise forecast effective bulk shear values remain
well below the threshold for organized convection. MLCAPE values of
2000+ J/kg will be possible each day per forecasts, so that can
create the potential for taller more persistent updrafts that could
be capable of some isolated damaging wind gusts when they collapse.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Another day of dodging showers and embedded tstorms across the
the region and at all taf sites. Expect diurnal cycle to begin
somewhere around 18z across the area and continue through 00z
around the area. Do expect a little more coverage today than
yesterday. Have identified the 18-22z window as the most likely
per CAM guidance but may need to extend that window at some sites
depending on how things play out today.
Winds will be again out of the west and remain so through the
period with the exception of in tstorms.
Could be some brief MVFR at the metro sites early in the AM per
some of the guidance but am opting to hold off putting anything
lower and sct015 for now...but will monitor trends. Otherwise,
Expect VFR CU field and some mid to higher level cloud debris to
be the rule of the day.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of
convection High confidence all other elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  87  69  88 /  50  80  70  70
Atlanta         71  85  70  86 /  50  80  70  80
Blairsville     65  79  65  80 /  30  80  60  80
Cartersville    69  85  68  85 /  40  70  60  80
Columbus        73  90  72  90 /  60  80  60  80
Gainesville     71  83  70  85 /  40  80  70  80
Macon           72  91  71  92 /  50  80  60  70
Rome            70  85  69  86 /  30  70  60  80
Peachtree City  70  86  68  88 /  60  80  70  80
Vidalia         74  94  74  93 /  50  80  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...30