324
FXUS62 KFFC 190140
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
940 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue for
the next several hours along (and just behind) the southeastward-
advancing cold front. Made just a few tweaks to the forecast to
better capture precipitation trends, otherwise we remain on track
for this evening. Severe potential has diminished with loss of
heating, but frequent lightning and gusty winds are possible in
any lingering storms overnight.

96


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Convection is again firing across the area in a rinse and repeat
type forecast from the past couple of days. Much of north Georgia is
being affected currently but that should move southward and begin
to affect the remainder of central Georgia. Again there are sfc
based CAPE values at 2500-3000 J/kg but shear values are again
nonexistent so again a rinse and repeat forecast with storms going
up and then down.

Tomorrow seems a bit more interesting but only marginally so. For
the past few days we have been under the influence of mainly
diurnally driven convection, but tomorrow the front begins to sag
southward which will provide some bit of weak forcing for the
thunderstorms. This along with a potential weak shortwave depicted
swinging northeast from the lower MS valley could result in more
organized convection tomorrow. Still looking at shear values that
aren`t overly impressive (up to 25kts) so not really expecting any
widespread severe weather. Storms could have a bit more organization
though and movement with these values and we could see locally
severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning
still being the main threats. One positive of this rain and cloud
cover is that temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for
much of the area tomorrow instead of the 90s.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Persistent pattern remain in place through the long term forecast
into the middle of next week. Large dome of high pressure looks
to remain fixed over the western half of the CONUS, keep longwave
troughing with embedded shortwaves over the eastern half. Given
the summer position of the jet, this acts to keep a stream of
moisture flowing around the south of the Bermuda High into the
CWA. The long term remains as it has through this entire week -
wet, damp, moist, pick your favorite word. Diurnally driven
convection looks to be on tap across the area each afternoon, with
enough moisture around that some things may linger into the
overnight.

Any given day will have to be monitored for any uptick in severe
potential that would be dependent upon remnant outflows and any MCV
production from the previous day`s convection. Shear remains quite
low overall, with 0-6 km values in forecast soundings remaining
below 25 kts, but an MCV could certainly modify that in a way that
the coarser guidance may not capture. CAPE profiles are long and
skinny thanks to a basically moist adiabatic vertical profile that
limits lapse rates. Still, day time heating will bring values to
1500-2000+ J/kg, and that can certainly drive some strong wind gusts
as a core comes down. Isolated damaging winds can never be ruled out
this time of year.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Primarily VFR conds to continue. Low-MVFR to IFR cigs and MVFR
vsbys to encroach on northern TAF sites from 10-13Z. Otherwise,
SCT to BKN cu at 2-4kft. Aftn TSRA expected once again between
18-24Z, with lingering -SHRA/-RA in its wake from 00-01Z on.
Winds will be 7kts or less outside of TSRA, favoring the W side
during the day, becoming CALM to VRB around due S after 00Z
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence AM low ceilings and visibility restrictions.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  69  88 /  20  80  80  80
Atlanta         71  86  70  85 /  20  80  80  90
Blairsville     65  80  65  80 /  30  80  80  90
Cartersville    68  84  69  85 /  20  80  80  90
Columbus        73  91  71  89 /  40  80  60  80
Gainesville     70  84  70  85 /  20  80  80  90
Macon           71  92  71  90 /  60  80  60  70
Rome            70  85  69  85 /  40  80  70  90
Peachtree City  70  87  69  87 /  20  80  70  80
Vidalia         73  93  74  93 /  30  80  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...96