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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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996 FXUS62 KFFC 190734 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 334 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Thanks to a broad 500 mb trough over the eastern CONUS, and a stationary boundary that has stalled over north Georgia, the short term forecast is going to sound a bit like a broken record with similar conditions on the horizon as to what we have seen over the last several days. As the surface boundary remains in place and a shortwave approaches from the west, southwest winds will advect abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the atmospheric column. As disturbances within the upper level flow pass overhead, multiple waves of shower and thunderstorm activity are expected to occur today, into the overnight hours, and again on Saturday. The bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected to be driven diurnally, and is most likely to occur primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours. However, a few rumbles of thunder outside of this timeframe will certainly be possible. With SBCAPE peaking between 1000-2000 J/kg during the afternoon and bulk shear ~25kt, a few storms could become strong, but the probability for widespread severe weather remains low. With PWATs north of 2.0", a few strong storms could produce instances of locally heavy rainfall. While this forecast isn`t particularly conducive to spending time outdoors this weekend, at least cooler daytime temperatures will prevail, with locations north of a line from Columbus to Eatonton to Washington in the 80s with areas south in the low 90s. KAB && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Key Messages: - Numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue in the region over the next 7 days. - Slightly below average high temperatures (by 2-5 degrees) and above average rainfall are favored in northern and central Georgia through next Thursday. A Rinse & Repeat Forecast Next Week: As we move through the upcoming workweek the ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS) favors a stagnant pattern with upper level troughing over the Central Plains/Midwest and an upper level ridge over the Western Atlantic. Prevailing southwesterly flow between these two features should keep subtropical moisture flowing into Georgia from the Gulf. Mean forecast PW values from the GEFS and EPS remain at or above the 90th percentile (~1.8 inches) through at least next Thursday. The elevated moisture levels should be accompanied by a lack of significant mid/upper level subsidence (thanks to the positioning of the upper level ridge and trough) and this should promote convection. This should be especially true during the afternoon and evening hours each day when diurnal heating is maximized. Run to run trends in the GEFS and EPS guidance have consistently shown 7 day precipitation anomalies (ending next Thursday) of 1 to 3 inches over northern and central Georgia. As such forecaster confidence in above average precipitation through next Thursday is moderate (especially over northern Georgia). Though thunderstorms are anticipated each day, severe weather remains unlikely through next Thursday due to a lack of appreciable wind shear. A few strong storms could still occur each day, with precipitation loading supporting isolated downburst wind gusts near 40 mph. Lower heights induced by the trough to our west and cloud cover from diurnally driven convection should keep our high temperatures at or below seasonal averages during the upcoming work week. Our running forecast keeps afternoon highs in the upper 80s for most of northern Georgia with low 90s in central Georgia. If these readings materialize, they would be 2 to 5 degrees below seasonal averages for the second half of July (the largest deviation in northern Georgia). Albright && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 212 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions will begin to deteriorate after 09Z. A TEMPO for IFR cigs has been introduced for several northern TAF sites between 10-13Z before these terminals see prevailing MVFR/VFR cigs by mid-morning. TSRA possible from 18-00Z for most locations with -SHRA a few hours on either side of that window. Calm to VRB03KT winds will pick up on the SW side at 5KT or less after sunrise. Saturday night, cigs expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR with winds becoming calm/VRB03KT. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on IFR cigs in the morning. High confidence on all remaining elements. KAB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 89 70 87 70 / 70 70 80 70 Atlanta 86 70 85 71 / 70 70 80 70 Blairsville 80 65 80 65 / 80 70 80 70 Cartersville 85 69 85 69 / 70 70 80 70 Columbus 89 72 90 72 / 70 60 80 60 Gainesville 85 70 84 71 / 80 70 80 70 Macon 91 70 91 71 / 70 50 70 60 Rome 84 70 85 70 / 70 60 80 70 Peachtree City 86 69 87 70 / 70 70 80 70 Vidalia 93 73 93 74 / 70 50 70 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAB LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...KAB