Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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957 FXUS62 KFFC 042343 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 743 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Messages: - Isolated thunderstorms will remain a concern for Independence Day celebrations this evening. - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday due to expected heat index values over 105 degrees. - A frontal boundary should lead to more widespread thunderstorms in northern and central Georgia Friday afternoon and evening. This Evening and Tonight: Satellite imagery indicated a broad cumulus field over northern and central Georgia with the most vigorous cumulus over the western half of the state. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were ongoing within the cumulus field (mainly along and west of Interstate 75). Narrow CAPE profiles and mid level lapse rates below 5.5 C/km should significantly limit the potential for stronger convection this evening. Thus severe weather is not anticipated. Frequent lighting and occasional wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range could still be hazardous for anyone celebrating the Independence day the holiday outdoors. Heat will remain a concern through this evening and a Heat Advisory remains in place through 7 PM this evening. Where thunderstorms and rain showers don`t occur, heat index values should remain at or above 100 degrees through around 7 PM. Conditions should improve after 7 PM, but conditions will remain warm and humid and impacts from the heat could linger, especially for anyone who has spent the entire day out in the heat. Concerns for Friday: A weak cold front will push into the region on Friday. Ahead of the front hot and humid conditions will be in place across Georgia. Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s should combine with dewpoints in the mid 70s to produce afternoon heat indices in the 100 to 108 degree range. A Heat Advisory has been issued for a large part of northern and central Georgia for Friday afternoon. Confidence in advisory criteria (heat index of 105 or higher) being met is highest in east central Georgia. The Heat Advisory for northwest Georgia is lower confidence due to the potential for clouds and storms that may disrupt the afternoon heating. The aforementioned front will serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development Friday afternoon/evening. Any storms that from along the front may be efficient rain producers due to unusually high PW values (at or above 2 inches and above the 90th percentile for early July). Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will be possible with the most vigorous storms. Dry ambient conditions and the limited scope of the more vigorous convection should keep any flooding threat localized. Severe weather is not anticipated due to modest mid level lapse rates (5.5 C/km or less) and a lack of effective shear (15 kt or less). Albright && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Over the Weekend: The aforementioned cold front should stall over the region this weekend. This will allow thunderstorms chances to linger in the region. The rainfall potential will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours when diurnal heating will be maximized. There may however be sufficient low level support for some isolated rainfall during the overnight and early morning hours each day. As with Friday, a lack of appreciable shear and poor mid level lapse rates should limit the potential for stronger storms. Heat will remain a potential concern over the weekend for locations south of the frontal boundary and free of widespread cloud cover. This largely means that we are monitoring portions of east central Georgia for potential Heat Advisory conditions. Though our forecast heat indices have declined by 1 to 3 degrees with the latest forecast update, there remains a chance that Heat Advisories will be need on Saturday (60% chance) or Sunday (20% chance) in east central Georgia. Next Week: The large scale weather patter next week should feature troughing over the north central U.S. and upper level ridge over the Western Atlantic. This pattern should favor weak subsidence aloft and keep surface moisture (surface dewpoints between 68 and 75 degree) in place across the Georgia, resulting in continued 20-50 percent chances for thunderstorms each afternoon. In short it is summer and we will be in a very summer like pattern. Temperatures will cool some early in the week when a few places may see afternoon highs fail to reach 90 degrees. Then a warming trend is favored by the GEFS and EPS as the week progresses, with afternoon highs returning to the low and mid 90s by Wednesday. Albright && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 At the time of this writing, SHRA and TSRA are impacting parts of Atlanta (ATL, FTY, PDK). Have TEMPOs at ATL and PDK until 02z for TSRA, VRB wind directions, and low-end gusts (up to 20 kts). Similar to late last night into this morning, cannot rule out transient low clouds tomorrow (Friday) morning (especially after this current rainfall adds moisture to the lower levels of the atmosphere) but long-lived low cigs/vis are currently not expected. Winds will be light/calm overnight, becoming WSW to SSW at 4-8 kts tomorrow. Scattered TSRA are expected tomorrow afternoon. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium overall confidence in the ATL TAF. Low confidence in cigs/vis potential at ATL tomorrow morning. Medium confidence on TSRA tomorrow afternoon. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 76 95 74 94 / 10 60 50 70 Atlanta 77 95 75 92 / 20 60 50 60 Blairsville 70 87 69 87 / 20 70 40 50 Cartersville 75 94 73 91 / 20 70 40 50 Columbus 77 96 76 95 / 20 50 50 80 Gainesville 77 93 75 92 / 20 70 50 60 Macon 76 96 75 94 / 20 40 40 80 Rome 77 95 74 93 / 20 70 40 40 Peachtree City 75 95 73 93 / 20 60 50 70 Vidalia 76 97 76 95 / 10 30 20 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ001>005- 011>013-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098- 102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...Martin