Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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207 FXUS62 KFFC 051058 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 658 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11am until 8 PM tonight. Heat indices of 105 degrees our higher will be possible within the advisory. - A front approaching the area will bring increased rain and tstorm chances Friday and Saturday. Forecast: For early this morning, watching areas of smoke and haze that have stuck around after the Independence Day activities. Smoke provides increased ground level cloud condensation nuclei that when combined with our high surface moisture can help generate haze or even some fog. We are seeing this especially in locations where rain fell today, including portions of metro Atlanta. This should fade pretty quickly as festivities have concluded in most locations. A trough with embedded shortwave will move across the midwest today pushing a "cold" front towards the CWA (it`s more of a "drier air front at the surface given the modified nature of the air mass). That front looks to be the focus of some convection starting in and around TN and northern AL that will move into northern GA into the afternoon. Otherwise, it`s summer in GA and with dewpoints in the 70s, surface temps in the 90s, PWATs of 2+", and little in the upper levels to suppress convection, afternoon thunderstorms will likely pop across north and central GA. These may continue a bit into the overnight hours given some additional forcing of the front moving into the CWA. Heat is the primary story. The above dewpoints and surface temps will lead to heat indices surging into the 100s and above 105 degrees in many areas. Highest confidence in seeing these conditions is in central Georgia, where rainfall chances are a bit lower. Lowest confidence is in northwest GA, where rain and thunderstorms may begin early enough to prevent current forecast high temperatures from being achieved. See the heat advisory for more information about precautionary and preparedness actions. Severe potential is low but not zero. Forecast SBCAPE values are 2000-2500 J/kg by the afternoon hours. Shear is low but does approach 25 kts from 0-6 km in parts of NW GA. Some light organization of storms may be possible, though it would be short lived. A few strong storms could occur, and won`t rule out a severe thunderstorm if a storm gets everything lined up just right. Primary threat would be strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Heavy rainfall will also be possible especially given high PWATs with WPC highlighting a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for flash flooding. Saturday, precip chances will likely depend on how far cold front moves into CWA. Hires guidance is mixed on progression, but currently best chances of rain look to be in central Georgia. Have left some rain chances in the NW mainly to reflect uncertainty, but if drier air has moved in, rain and thunderstorm chances will be lower. Heat will likely still be in place in portions of central Georgia, and heat products will likely be necessary again. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A stationary front draped across the area will provide a continued focus for diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Given the position of the front, the highest PoPs will be favored along and south of I-85. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible given high PWAT values of 2-2.5". Meanwhile, temperatures will remain on the hot side outside of any cooling influence of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s and continued dewpoints in the 70s south of the front will provide for heat index values over 100 degrees. A summery pattern will remain in place through the coming week with generally hot and humid conditions persisting. Persistent broad troughing situated across the Great Lakes into the Midwest into midweek and ridging across the western Atlantic will keep the forecast area in a moist southwest flow aloft. Thus, elevated diurnally enhanced PoPs will remain in the forecast. Continued very moist PWATs within the tropical airmass will maintain the risk for locally heavy rainfall. Persistent high temperatures in the low to mid 90s amid the very moist airmass will keep things feeling rather sauna-esque with heat index values over 100 degrees for many of us each afternoon. RW && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR to start TAF period. Primary challenge today will be convection. Afternoon TSRA expected to develop by 18Z, possibly earlier. Another round of convection possible during the evening to overnight hours as a cold front approaches the metro TAF sites. Cigs expected to be MVFR or lower by 10-12Z Saturday morning, with some probability of IFR cigs. Winds through TAF period will be on west side, 4-9 kts. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium convective timing, medium on Saturday morning cigs, high all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 73 90 / 50 70 40 70 Atlanta 76 94 74 93 / 60 60 30 60 Blairsville 69 87 67 87 / 60 60 30 60 Cartersville 73 92 70 94 / 60 50 20 50 Columbus 76 95 75 95 / 50 80 30 70 Gainesville 75 94 74 90 / 50 60 30 60 Macon 75 95 74 92 / 40 80 40 70 Rome 74 93 71 95 / 60 40 20 40 Peachtree City 74 94 72 93 / 60 70 30 60 Vidalia 76 95 75 91 / 30 60 40 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011>013-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076- 078>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Lusk