729
FXUS64 KEWX 041912
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
212 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Subtropical ridging remains in firm control this afternoon, centered
from east Texas through Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Taking a
look at Water Vapor imagery, you can see the TUTT Low (Tropical
Upper Tropospheric Trough) over the southern Gulf of Mexico just to
the northwest of Hurricane Beryl. This feature has been the primary
source of westerly and southwesterly shear that has weakened Beryl
somewhat over the last 24-48 hours. Beryl appears to be putting up a
strong fight, as it begins to attempt the formation of yet another
eye on approach to the Yucatan peninsula. The short term should be
fairly uneventful in contrast to the long term period, but a weak
frontal boundary over the Panhandle is expected to work far enough
south to bring some threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening over the Hill Country and northern I-35
corridor generally north of Highway 21. For now, WPC does place a Day
2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) threat for excessive rainfall over
the Hill Country. Concerns are quite low for any sort of flooding
threat, but PWATs are quite high, so any sustained updraft could
result in a quick 1-2" of rainfall given the right conditions. For
additional information on Beryl, please see the Long term discussion
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A frontal boundary draped across Central Texas in combination with
any associated outflow should serve as a focal point for widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity across the
northern 2/3rds of the CWA during Saturday. The relaxed flow aloft
and PWATs approaching 2 inches could allow for a few pockets of some
locally heavy rain. With the slow movement expected, these heavier
pockets will be very isolated. Any rainfall activity should diminish
Saturday night and looks to remain generally rain free through
majority of Sunday as the front lifts back northward a bit. High
temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s for many but there
could be some brief instances of heat relief for locations behind
any outflow and/or with any rain cooled air.

The focus of the forecast then shifts into next week with Hurricane
Beryl and its remnant tropical moisture with progression through the
week. The model guidance over the past 24 hours has become into a
tighter consensus in regards to Beryl`s post Yucatan peninsula land
interaction and it`s WNW to NW approach toward the northern Mexico
and/or Southern Texas coastline. Despite some continued wind shear
thanks to the influence from a TUTT (currently seen to the northwest
of the storm on water vapor imagery), some slow re-strengthening of
Beryl remains forecast back up to a hurricane as it moves over the
western Gulf prior to landfall. While higher uncertainty develops
post-landfall, the models have aligned a bit more on a northerly
track beyond landfall somewhere up along the Rio Grande and/or
inland across our area. Beryl`s remnant circulation beyond landfall
looks to slow as well and becomes absorbed into the existing mean
flow and possibly tangled up with a frontal boundary situated to our
north into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This and the approach
of a tropical wave (Invest 96L) over the western Gulf of Mexico
keeps plenty of tropical moisture settled across the region through
the end of the long term period with PWATS generally of around or in
excess of 2 inches. As a result of this, the confidence continues to
increase on overall rainfall chances across South-Central Texas into
much of next week, including the potential for heavy, beneficial
rains at times. However, it`s far too early to speculate the rainfall
amounts given the many unknown variables that remain in the forecast
but we will continue to fine tune local details through the next
several days.

One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling to the
beach after the 4th of July, that increased swells and the risk for
rip currents increases through the upcoming weekend and into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The latest forecast on the aviation side of things calls for VFR CIGs
through the entire operational period. We may see some MVFR CIGs try
to sneak in at SAT and SSF towards sunrise Friday, but otherwise,
quite weather is expected. Winds should mainly be out of the
southeast, but may turn SSW briefly at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 100  78  97 /   0  20  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 100  76  96 /   0  20  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  99  76  99 /   0  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            76  97  75  94 /   0  30  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 102  81 103 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  76  95 /   0  30  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75  97 /   0  10  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  96  76  96 /   0  10  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           77 100  77 100 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...MMM