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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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139 FXUS64 KEWX 301758 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Nocturnal stratus has set up across the western half of the area and there could be a low chance of a streamer shower in this region around daybreak. Southeast winds are near 10-15 mph with temperatures remaining in the lower 80s at the present hour. Should see lows later this morning in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The main focus for today will be another hot day with highs later today in the the upper 90s to near 103 degrees. Elevated dewpoints this afternoon will allow for afternoon heat index values to max out near 108-112 degrees for areas mainly east of the I35 corridor and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for these locations today. Deep moisture could support a stray shower in the southern CWA today, and will keep the 10-20 PoP going there. Lows tonight will maybe be a degree or two cooler as sky conditions try to stay on the partly cloudy side vs seeing an additional night of cloudy conditions. Highs tomorrow will warm into the upper 90s to near 102 degrees out west. Slightly lower dewpoints Monday afternoon should lead to lower heat index values. There may be a need for another Heat Advisory, but most of the counties in today`s advisory will be borderline tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 At the start of the long term period, the Subtropical Ridge axis will remain centered over the ArkLaTex. By Wednesday-Thursday, we should start to see the Ridge axis slide a bit further east and settling over the Southeastern CONUS. This should result in a bit of a weakness in the upper level flow over South Central Texas and could open the door for a weak frontal boundary to get far enough south to bring some showers and storms to the Hill Country by the end of next week. Beyond that, our attention would turn to the tropics. Global guidance, particularly 3 of the last 4 operational runs of the GFS have Beryl moving into south Texas sometime late next weekend. For now, we should take any of the guidance that far out with a grain of salt, especially since a lot of uncertainties exist as to where Beryl will end up once it moves west of the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands. As it stands, the weakness in the ridge to our east and troughing to our north would act to pull any system entering the Gulf of Mexico into Texas or Louisiana if those pattern trends continue. We`ll keep monitoring it, but the main focus will remain on the heat and humidity heading into the 4th of July holiday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions are in store through the remainder of this afternoon and evening hours. Some convection is noted across the Rio Grande plains. This activity is expected to remain isolated in coverage and should mainly stay to the south of DRT. Otherwise, look for a little less coverage of low clouds Monday morning as the low-level winds for the I-35 sites weaken. However, we will keep prevailing MVFR cigs in the forecast for SAT and SSF and have scaled back to a TEMPO group for AUS. Low-level winds look a little more favorable for low cloud development at DRT and have added a TEMPO group for MVFR between 10-14Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 99 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 97 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 81 103 81 / 0 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 75 99 75 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 76 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 77 100 77 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 99 77 101 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays- Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...09 Aviation...Platt