130
FXUS64 KEWX 051741
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The subtropical ridge stretches across the southern tier of the
country with a trough pushing down from MN to OK. Surface high
pressure centered over the Gulf has the low level flow from the
south to southeast across our CWA. The warm, moist airmass over the
region is about the same as 24 hours ago. There is a frontal
boundary stretched across the northern part of TX from near Sherman
to Lubbock. This front has generated scattered thunderstorms in OK
and northern TX. The upper trough will dig a little farther south
today and split the subtropical ridge. This will allow the front to
drop into Central TX approaching our northern border. This will
bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to the northern
Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Coverage will be
isolated, but a few places could see a tenth to a quarter inch of
rain. The rest of the CWA will have another hot, humid day. High
temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of 100. Heat index
will reach 105-110. The highest heat index will be confined to the
Coastal Plains. We will cover it with another Special Weather
Statement given the isolated nature of high values and short
duration. Tonight the front will stall near our northern border and
slight chances for thunderstorms will continue across the north
extending a little farther south in the east getting into the Austin
area. Saturday the front will begin to lift back toward the north as
a warm front. PW values will increase and the combination of the
front and daytime heating we will see better chances for convection
over more of the CWA Saturday afternoon. Best chances will be across
the north and east. Rainfall amounts will still be modest with a few
places possibly seeing a quarter to half an inch. With more cloud
cover temperatures will be a few degrees lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The surface boundary weakens and dissipates Saturday night into
Sunday. Forcing wanes leading to showers and thunderstorms gradually
ending. Seasonally hot temperatures are expected.

As mentioned in previous discussions, focus then turns to Hurricane
Beryl and its impacts on South Central Texas. It will move into a
weakness in the Subtropical Ridge caused by an upper level trough
over the Central States. The exact track and speed remain uncertain
for early into middle of next week. Though it may enter an area of
weaker flow aloft by mid week. In addition, a surface boundary sags
south into Central Texas while a weak tropical wave (formerly Invest
96L) moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Forcing by these features will
generate areas of rain and showers with light to moderate
instability allowing for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.
PWs of 2 to 2.5+ inches and possible slower cell motions indicate a
potential for efficient rainfall processes to allow for heavy rains,
possible nighttime core rains. The heavy rains will likely be the
main threat from Beryl. There remains a potential for strong winds,
although this remains uncertain. This will depend on the amount of
weakening based on the interaction with land after landfall along the
northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coast. At a minimum, gusty
winds seem possible in rain bands. Finally, depending on the track,
there is a non-zero tornado threat along and east of its track. Any
of the impacts are highly dependent on the track and strength of the
Beryl. It is too early to determine rainfall totals for our area,
however there is a potential for multiple inches along and near its
track. Due to the extensive clouds and areas of rain, temperatures,
especially highs, will be below normal, possibly well below normal.
Stay tuned for updates as this situation evolves.

One certainty is there will be elevated swells and a high risk for
rip currents through the upcoming weekend into next week for those
going to the Texas beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated showers and convection will be possible across the Hill
Country this afternoon as a front, currently near Stephenville to
San Angelo, slides southward with help from any associated outflow
boundaries. However, activity should stay to the north of the TAF
sites through tonight. VFR flight conditions persist towards and
through this evening at all TAF sites. Some low MVFR stratus will
establish at KAUS beyond 11Z Saturday morning while VFR conditions
with patchy scattered low clouds at the remaining TAF sites. The
frontal boundary and any associated outflow continues sliding
southward into Saturday and should result in scattered convection
across the region. Have added PROB30s for KAUS and KSAT through
Saturday afternoon as a result. Winds remain light, generally of
around 12 knots, or less. The winds may shift and become variable
at times pending the position of the front and with any of the
outflow boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  97  76  98 /  10  40  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  75  96 /  10  40  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  97  75  98 /  10  40  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  93  74  95 /  20  40  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 101  79 103 /  10  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  94  75  95 /  20  40  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  75  98 /  10  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  96  74  97 /  10  40  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  76  94 /  10  40  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  97  77  98 /  10  30  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  99  77  99 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Brady