837
FXUS64 KEWX 031915
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
215 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A flat E-W oriented subtropical ridge runs from East TX to GA today
with the western periphery over South Central TX. Light onshore flow
is broad and deep from the surface to 500 hPa, but the lightness of
the low level winds is helping keep low level moisture content mixed
with the drier layers aloft. The pattern will not change
significantly during the short term period. The upper ridge will
continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free.

High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 90s to 103. Heat
indices should be mainly in the 100 to 105 range over most of the
area on the 4th of July holiday, but a pocket of 105-108 degree heat
index will be possible east of I-35. Thus no Heat Advisories are
projected at this time. Even lighter winds are projected for
Thursday night, and this could result in min temps falling another
degree or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An upper level low advancing across the northern plains into the
Great Lakes region on Friday helps to send a cold front southward
into north-central Texas before stalling. Any outflow advancing out
ahead of the front will help to promote low end rain chances across
our northern counties on Friday and into more of our region during
Saturday. Rainfall chances are likely to be highest through the
afternoon hours with daytime heating. The outflow and area rain is
likely to help to impact and lower temperatures slightly across the
area as well. Rainfall through Saturday is not associated with
Beryl, which we address Beryl and beyond down below.

The focus of the forecast for Sunday into next week turns to the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and what Hurricane Beryl ends up doing
track and strength wise. The latest forecast track from the National
Hurricane Center has the cone of uncertainty entering our southern
counties by the end of the current 5 day forecast. However, there
does remain considerable uncertainty within the forecast in the Day
5 to 7 time frame as models struggle with the intensity and eventual
track of Beryl as it interacts with a weakening upper level ridge to
our east across the Southeastern CONUS, upper level troughing over
the central plains, and a weak TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric
Trough) preceding the storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that
is forecast to induce some wind shear onto the storm. Even once
Beryl makes landfall, we`ll also need to monitor for any additional
interactions with potentially the frontal boundary located to our
north or invest 96L as it approaches/enters the Western Gulf of
Mexico itself.

We want to re-iterate that at this time frame still 5+ days out we
should not focus on any one deterministic model run, but focus on
ensemble data and the official forecast from the Hurricane Center.
There will remain high uncertainty on the eventual track of Beryl
and the intensity as it makes it to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
We hope to have more confidence on the track/strength/impacts later
this week. One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling
to the beach for the the 4th of July, that increased swells and the
risk for rip currents increase by the end of the week into the
weekend. Due to the uncertain track, confidence in rainfall amounts
across the area in association with Beryl and after Beryl within the
next 7 days, remains very low. Kept the NBM on temperatures in the
Day 5 to 7 range where values are lower with the influence of the
potential for greater cloud chances and rain chances across the
region. All interests across our area should continue to check back
frequently for future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure aloft will not change much over the next 24 hours and
this means the low level winds will be light and well decoupled at
night. A few pockets of MVFR cigs could result again along the I-35
terminals, but the rest of the TAFS should be VFR. A few midday gusts
to near 20 knots are possible in the midday and early afternoon
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79 101  78 100 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77 101  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            77  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 104  81 103 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  97  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78 100  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...18