Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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689 FXUS64 KEWX 050517 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Subtropical ridging remains in firm control this afternoon, centered from east Texas through Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Taking a look at Water Vapor imagery, you can see the TUTT Low (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) over the southern Gulf of Mexico just to the northwest of Hurricane Beryl. This feature has been the primary source of westerly and southwesterly shear that has weakened Beryl somewhat over the last 24-48 hours. Beryl appears to be putting up a strong fight, as it begins to attempt the formation of yet another eye on approach to the Yucatan peninsula. The short term should be fairly uneventful in contrast to the long term period, but a weak frontal boundary over the Panhandle is expected to work far enough south to bring some threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening over the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor generally north of Highway 21. For now, WPC does place a Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) threat for excessive rainfall over the Hill Country. Concerns are quite low for any sort of flooding threat, but PWATs are quite high, so any sustained updraft could result in a quick 1-2" of rainfall given the right conditions. For additional information on Beryl, please see the Long term discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A frontal boundary draped across Central Texas in combination with any associated outflow should serve as a focal point for widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA during Saturday. The relaxed flow aloft and PWATs approaching 2 inches could allow for a few pockets of some locally heavy rain. With the slow movement expected, these heavier pockets will be very isolated. Any rainfall activity should diminish Saturday night and looks to remain generally rain free through majority of Sunday as the front lifts back northward a bit. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s for many but there could be some brief instances of heat relief for locations behind any outflow and/or with any rain cooled air. The focus of the forecast then shifts into next week with Hurricane Beryl and its remnant tropical moisture with progression through the week. The model guidance over the past 24 hours has become into a tighter consensus in regards to Beryl`s post Yucatan peninsula land interaction and it`s WNW to NW approach toward the northern Mexico and/or Southern Texas coastline. Despite some continued wind shear thanks to the influence from a TUTT (currently seen to the northwest of the storm on water vapor imagery), some slow re-strengthening of Beryl remains forecast back up to a hurricane as it moves over the western Gulf prior to landfall. While higher uncertainty develops post-landfall, the models have aligned a bit more on a northerly track beyond landfall somewhere up along the Rio Grande and/or inland across our area. Beryl`s remnant circulation beyond landfall looks to slow as well and becomes absorbed into the existing mean flow and possibly tangled up with a frontal boundary situated to our north into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This and the approach of a tropical wave (Invest 96L) over the western Gulf of Mexico keeps plenty of tropical moisture settled across the region through the end of the long term period with PWATS generally of around or in excess of 2 inches. As a result of this, the confidence continues to increase on overall rainfall chances across South-Central Texas into much of next week, including the potential for heavy, beneficial rains at times. However, it`s far too early to speculate the rainfall amounts given the many unknown variables that remain in the forecast but we will continue to fine tune local details through the next several days. One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling to the beach after the 4th of July, that increased swells and the risk for rip currents increases through the upcoming weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 All terminals are currently VFR and should remain that way for the next few hours. MVFR ceilings will develop in the Austin and San Antonio areas later tonight and at DRT around sunrise. VFR conditions will return by mid-morning. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms at AUS this afternoon and evening, but probability is too low to include in the TAF. If any convection does develop it will be after 21Z and could lower visibility to MVFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 100 78 97 78 / 20 20 30 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 96 76 / 20 20 30 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 76 99 76 / 10 10 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 97 75 94 75 / 30 20 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 81 103 80 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 76 95 76 / 30 20 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 75 97 75 / 10 20 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 76 96 76 / 10 20 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 78 99 78 / 0 0 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...Brady Aviation...05