Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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650 FXUS64 KEWX 050720 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The subtropical ridge stretches across the southern tier of the country with a trough pushing down from MN to OK. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf has the low level flow from the south to southeast across our CWA. The warm, moist airmass over the region is about the same as 24 hours ago. There is a frontal boundary stretched across the northern part of TX from near Sherman to Lubbock. This front has generated scattered thunderstorms in OK and northern TX. The upper trough will dig a little farther south today and split the subtropical ridge. This will allow the front to drop into Central TX approaching our northern border. This will bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to the northern Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Coverage will be isolated, but a few places could see a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. The rest of the CWA will have another hot, humid day. High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of 100. Heat index will reach 105-110. The highest heat index will be confined to the Coastal Plains. We will cover it with another Special Weather Statement given the isolated nature of high values and short duration. Tonight the front will stall near our northern border and slight chances for thunderstorms will continue across the north extending a little farther south in the east getting into the Austin area. Saturday the front will begin to lift back toward the north as a warm front. PW values will increase and the combination of the front and daytime heating we will see better chances for convection over more of the CWA Saturday afternoon. Best chances will be across the north and east. Rainfall amounts will still be modest with a few places possibly seeing a quarter to half an inch. With more cloud cover temperatures will be a few degrees lower. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The surface boundary weakens and dissipates Saturday night into Sunday. Forcing wanes leading to showers and thunderstorms gradually ending. Seasonally hot temperatures are expected. As mentioned in previous discussions, focus then turns to Hurricane Beryl and its impacts on South Central Texas. It will move into a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge caused by an upper level trough over the Central States. The exact track and speed remain uncertain for early into middle of next week. Though it may enter an area of weaker flow aloft by mid week. In addition, a surface boundary sags south into Central Texas while a weak tropical wave (formerly Invest 96L) moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Forcing by these features will generate areas of rain and showers with light to moderate instability allowing for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. PWs of 2 to 2.5+ inches and possible slower cell motions indicate a potential for efficient rainfall processes to allow for heavy rains, possible nighttime core rains. The heavy rains will likely be the main threat from Beryl. There remains a potential for strong winds, although this remains uncertain. This will depend on the amount of weakening based on the interaction with land after landfall along the northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coast. At a minimum, gusty winds seem possible in rain bands. Finally, depending on the track, there is a non-zero tornado threat along and east of its track. Any of the impacts are highly dependent on the track and strength of the Beryl. It is too early to determine rainfall totals for our area, however there is a potential for multiple inches along and near its track. Due to the extensive clouds and areas of rain, temperatures, especially highs, will be below normal, possibly well below normal. Stay tuned for updates as this situation evolves. One certainty is there will be elevated swells and a high risk for rip currents through the upcoming weekend into next week for those going to the Texas beaches. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 All terminals are currently VFR and should remain that way for the next few hours. MVFR ceilings will develop in the Austin and San Antonio areas later tonight and at DRT around sunrise. VFR conditions will return by mid-morning. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms at AUS this afternoon and evening, but probability is too low to include in the TAF. If any convection does develop it will be after 21Z and could lower visibility to MVFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 101 78 98 76 / 10 10 30 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 97 76 / 10 10 30 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 77 99 76 / 10 10 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 97 76 94 75 / 20 20 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 81 103 80 / 0 10 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 76 95 76 / 10 20 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 100 76 99 76 / 10 10 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 76 98 75 / 10 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 76 94 76 / 10 10 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 78 99 78 / 10 10 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 101 77 100 77 / 10 10 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...04 Aviation...05