Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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374 FXUS64 KEWX 060537 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1237 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A front is currently positioned from near Stephenville to San Angelo and the boundary will continue to drop southward into our region from this afternoon into tonight. There is already some isolated to scattered convection along the boundary and this activity looks to continue to drop southward towards and across portions of the Hill Country from later today into tonight. With loss of daytime heating, there would likely be a lull from the overnight through early Saturday before the boundary will refire with scattered convection into and through Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon looks to be more active across our region compared to the activity expected from this afternoon into this evening. With a weak flow aloft and PWATS up to around the 1.8 to 2.l inches, there will be pockets of locally heavy rainfall in association with this convection. As a result of the slow storm motion, some heavier pockets with 1+ inch should remain on the isolated end. WPC continues to highlight a level 1 of 4 risk to exceed flash flood guidance across the northern half of our region during Saturday. Some gusty winds up to around 50 mph could be possible with the convection as well. Activity wanes into and through Saturday night as the front lifts northward and with the loss of daytime heating. The temperatures will continue to run generally near to slightly above average through the short term but there will be some instances of heat relief for locations behind the front/outflow boundaries and with any additional rain cooled air. Heat indices still peak above 100 degrees across many areas over central and eastern portions of the region but values are expected to stay shy of reaching heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Complicated. That would be the best word to describe the long term period. All attention turns to Beryl as the storm begins its final approach the the southern/central Texas coast near sunrise Monday. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm remains a Category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 85mph, but is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before emerging out over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. The forecast continues to trend further to the north and east with Beryl as it defies the odds on intensity guidance in the face of moderate to strong shear from a TUTT low situated over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Confidence continues to increase in the forecast path for Beryl, but uncertainty still exists, especially within the last 12-24 hours before landfall. The Subtropical High will already be sliding eastward into the southeastern CONUS at the start of the long term period. Additionally, an unusually strong trough for early July standards, some 1-2 sigma below the mean will dig further south into the Southern Plains late Sunday into Monday, and act to pull Beryl northward on approach to the Texas coast. Exactly when Beryl takes this jog to the north is the greatest question mark at the moment. The longer Beryl remains over the bath water of the Gulf, the stronger it is likely to get as vertical shear starts to weaken over the next 24 hours. For now, the latest forecast calls for Beryl to be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, but that could continue to shift further north if current trends continue. Tropical wind hazards are looking increasingly likely, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. With regard to the heavy rainfall threat, any locations that are on the eastern side of the circulation will see the heaviest rains, with the latest 12Z GEFS and 06Z ECMWF Ens coming into slightly better agreement on the placement of the heaviest precip, with a swath of perhaps 2-4" with locally higher amounts, particularly over the Coastal Plains. A localized tornado threat may also materialize as Beryl makes landfall, mainly in the right front quadrant. For now, the Storm Prediction Center does not have any areas highlighted for a tornado threat Monday or Tuesday, but would expect as confidence increases in the track of Beryl, we`ll get placed in some sort of risk area. With regard to the flooding rain threat, WPC places a good chunk of the CWA in a level 2 of 4 risk (Slight) for excessive rainfall both Monday and Tuesday. We`ll have to see how things play out, but if Beryl comes in weaker, it could get caught in no-man`s land and take some time to exit our coverage area. That would result in continued rounds of rainfall through Wednesday. Once Beryl is out of the picture, things remain rather active, at least by July standards. Daily rain chances look to continue as high PWATs between 1.5-2" remain in play over the EWX coverage area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A weak cold front is moving through the region this morning. Winds have shifted to the northeast at AUS and should change in San Antonio within the next couple of hours. We don`t think the front will make it to DRT. With the front upsetting the low level flow we don`t anticipate any low ceilings tonight. There will be isolated thunderstorms in Austin and San Antonio this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 76 97 77 / 40 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 75 96 77 / 40 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 75 97 77 / 40 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 93 74 95 76 / 40 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 101 79 102 80 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 75 95 76 / 40 20 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 98 75 98 77 / 30 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 74 96 76 / 40 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 76 95 77 / 40 10 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 77 97 78 / 30 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 99 77 98 78 / 30 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...MMM Aviation...05