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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
201 FOUS30 KWBC 081558 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1158 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Mon Jul 08 2024 - 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...16Z Update... No huge changes, but several noteworthy ones to highlight for this midday update: First the good news. The risk areas are being trimmed on the southwest side of Beryl`s circulation along the Upper Texas Coast. The northerly flow of drier air will continue as a northwesterly offshore wind along the coast through the afternoon. This should notably tamp down the potential for convection in the area, with even lesser chances that the convection that does form can produce flash flooding given the low expected rainfall rates. Thus, despite obviously rock bottom FFGs from Beryl, the lack of additional rainfall lends confidence to full downgrades to zero behind Beryl`s circulation. With the heaviest rainfall now clear of Houston proper, the ERO was downgraded accordingly. Any additional rainfall in Houston will be over the next hour or two and will be much lighter in comparison to this morning`s rain due to the bands southwest of center are weakening due to dry air entrainment. Now the not so good news. Starting in eastern Oklahoma...increasing moisture convergence from the southeasterly flow ahead of Beryl`s center will clash with the predominant northerly flow over much of the state. PWATs across eastern Oklahoma now well ahead of Beryl are generally above 1.5 inches. Thus, with ample moisture in place now and more to come, a front is expected to intensify across eastern Oklahoma that with peak diurnal heating will lead to a line of strong thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. There is considerable uncertainty as to how quickly this line of storms will move...but the clashing air masses tends to keep it slow. Thus...expect a narrow area of heavier rainfall totals in eastern Oklahoma. For this reason, the Slight with Beryl was expanded northwest for this potential. Further along to the north and east, the inherited Slight risk area was expanded well to the north and east to include the southern third of Missouri with this update. An expanding jet streak over the northern part of the state will put the southern part of the state in the favorable right entrance region. This will result in a rapidly expanding precipitation shield with Beryl as it approaches tonight. With rain, heavy at times, moving in earlier than previously forecast, the Slight was expanded accordingly. No big changes were made on the eastern side of the risk areas as southerly flow now and through tonight as the storm`s center lifts northward will mean favorable southerly flow off the Gulf continues behind the circulation. This will keep moisture and instability advecting across Louisiana, so the threat remains largely the same. The daily convection across much of the Southeast will also continue today, including across the Carolinas. The Marginal was expanded, primarily in deference to the potential for another round of daily afternoon isolated cells forming, especially at the head of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds in North Carolina...though recent rainfall supports an isolated flash flooding risk once again across the Southeast, even if the coverage today will be notably lower than previous days. A Marginal Risk area was added for portions of west Texas with the ongoing storms near Midland and expected renewed daily convection in flood sensitive areas of eastern New Mexico. Wegman ...Previous Discussion... The National Hurricane Center anticipates Hurricane Beryl to make landfall near Matagorda Beach early this morning and continue to track northward. It is expected to be a fairly compact storm as it tracks through eastern Texas so the QPF gradient will be somewhat tight with its 3 to 8 inches swath slightly east of the track with local maximums possibly approaching 15 inches. The shift in Beryl`s track resulted in an east and northward adjustment to all of the inherited Excessive Rainfall Outlook areas. The Moderate Risk spans from Brazosport Area to south of Lake Calcasieu and northward into southwest Arkansas. The Slight Risk spans from Matagorda Bay to west of Vermilion Bay and northward into central Arkansas. The Marginal Risk spans from San Antonio Bay to Atchafalaya Bay and from the Texas Panhandle to Southern Missouri. Tropical moisture from Beryl into a cold frontal boundary draped over the Southern Plains should focus scattered heavy rainfall over much of Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. ...Southeast... Convection in proximity to the lingering frontal boundary will persist across the Southeast. PW values on the order of +2 to +3 standard deviations will be pooled over the region and will bolster rainfall efficiency. Recent rains have increased soil saturation levels and with additional showers and thunderstorms expected the threat for isolated flooding concerns will remain elevated for this part of the country. The latest guidance trended higher with the thunderstorm potential and QPF amounts across portions of northeast/central Florida. The Marginal Risk area was expanded south to account for this trend and new WPC forecast. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024 - 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 ...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Beryl is still expected to quickly phase with an upper trough and surface front to the north while in transition to being extra tropical. This should lead to the potential for heavy rain to blanket part of the central U.S. causing flash flooding concerns from Arkansas to Indiana during this period. Some of the highest QPF amounts of 3+ inches are likely to focus over the Ozarks region and points northeast to the Illinois/Indiana border. Areal averages are expected to be around 2 to 4 inches with local maximums upwards of 8 inches. A Slight Risk extends from central Arkansas to western Indiana. A Marginal Risk stretches from the central Gulf Coast northward to southern Michigan. Again, an future adjustments will likely be dependent on the track for Beryl. In addition, some of the CAMs hint that some type of southwest to northeast band could set up along or just inland of south-central Louisiana coast to produce a few inches of rain over some areas that could be a little more sensitive to heavy rain impacts. A Slight Risk area was raised for this stretch of the coastline north to about I-10. ...Southwest... Monsoonal moisture feeds over eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies warranting maintenance of the Marginal Risk for most of New Mexico, southeast Arizona into southern Colorado with particularly considerations for burn scars and areas that have seen ample rainfall recently. ...Southeast... Convection will persist during this period thanks to the abundant moisture hanging around and diurnal forcing. Some of the guidance continues to suggest areas of locally heavy rainfall especially along the eastern coastline of Florida. General consensus suggests 1 to 2 inches although local maximums of 3 to 4+ inches will certainly possible. A Marginal Risk remains in effect for portions of central/northern Florida and southeast Georgia. ...Northeast... Interaction of moisture ahead of Beryl and a front settling over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England may favor heavy rainfall potential over this region; although guidance is rather light with activity mainly in New England. Some focus of the convective rain ahead of the front(s) and sufficient instability for heavy rain rates in the northern Mid-Atlantic to Northeast favor of a Marginal Risk. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 - 12Z Thu Jul 11 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST... ...Midwest to Northeast... There is still a fair amount of spread in the guidance with respect to the evolution/track for post-tropical Beryl and exactly how this upper level energy ejects into the overall Great Lakes/Midwest mean trough. The flow of tropical moisture should bring the highest precipitable water anomalies into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast during this period. Some PWAT anomalies within this region will likely exceed the 90th percentile and west- east oriented fronts north/east of post- tropical Beryl may promote training. The exact location of the heaviest rainfall will be dependent on the location of the frontal boundary but there is a growing signal for a broad area to be impacted by the heavy rains. A Slight Risk is in effect from northern Indiana to New Hampshire while a Marginal Risk area spans from Illinois to Maine. As details resolve and get closer in time, there may be the need to upgrade the risk level, but at this time there is too much uncertainty. ...Central Rockies and portions of the Southwest... Continuation of the monsoonal moisture and diurnal heating will keep convection possible across portions of the Central and Southern Rockies and southwest New Mexico during this period. The inherited Marginal Risk was maintained with westward modification for New Mexico. Rain in proximity to burn scars and other sensitive areas that have seen ample rainfall recently will have an elevated risk for flash flooding. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt